NBA games

PHI @ NY

NBA Madison Square Garden ·Final
102–108
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
PHI33292812102
NY31302819108

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NY) / 10 (PHI) games this season
PHI away
home NY
36% 64%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tyrese Maxey S 47 26 3 6
Kelly Oubre Jr. S 40 19 5 2
Paul George S 43 19 6 4
VJ Edgecombe S 40 17 5 3
Quentin Grimes 24 7 3 3
Dominick Barlow 16 6 2 0
Andre Drummond S 15 6 8 1
Adem Bona 16 2 7 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Brunson S 41 26 1 6
OG Anunoby S 37 24 5 2
Karl-Anthony Towns S 27 20 10 7
Mikal Bridges S 38 18 5 2
Jordan Clarkson 8 6 5 0
Josh Hart S 44 5 7 6
Miles McBride 21 4 1 1
Jose Alvarado 7 3 0 1
Ariel Hukporti 7 2 3 0
Landry Shamet 8 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Kelly Oubre Jr. · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:30 Q1
"Kelly Oubre Jr. makes 1-foot running dunk (Paul George assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Tyrese Maxey PHI
17%
2 Jalen Brunson NY
16%
3 Karl-Anthony Towns NY
13%
4 VJ Edgecombe PHI
11%
5 OG Anunoby NY
10%
6 Josh Hart NY
8%
7 Paul George PHI
8%
8 Mikal Bridges NY
8%
9 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI
8%
10 Andre Drummond PHI
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
24%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
15%
Jumper
42%
Layup
16%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jalen Brunson NY 27.2 3.0 6.6
2 Tyrese Maxey PHI 24.4 4.1 5.6
3 Karl-Anthony Towns NY 20.2 10.4 5.7
4 OG Anunoby NY 16.5 6.7 1.8
5 Paul George PHI 16.1 4.0 3.3
6 VJ Edgecombe PHI 15.5 6.2 3.4
7 Mikal Bridges NY 12.0 2.9 2.4
8 Josh Hart NY 11.2 6.8 3.9
9 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI 10.6 5.2 1.4
10 Quentin Grimes PHI 8.6 3.1 2.2
11 Jose Alvarado NY 7.2 2.4 2.4
12 Miles McBride NY 6.8 1.9 1.3
13 Mitchell Robinson NY 6.4 6.9 0.7
14 Jordan Clarkson NY 6.0 2.0 1.0
15 Andre Drummond PHI 5.9 5.1 1.1
16 Justin Edwards PHI 5.0 2.1 0.8
17 Tyler Kolek NY 4.7 1.5 2.2
18 Landry Shamet NY 4.1 1.3 0.9
19 Jeremy Sochan NY 3.9 2.1 0.7
20 Ariel Hukporti NY 3.9 4.3 0.7
21 Trendon Watford PHI 3.8 1.6 0.8
22 Pacome Dadiet NY 3.8 1.6 0.7
23 Adem Bona PHI 3.8 2.6 0.6
24 Mohamed Diawara NY 3.5 1.7 1.2
25 Dominick Barlow PHI 3.4 2.8 0.4
26 Dalen Terry PHI 2.9 1.3 0.7
27 Jabari Walker PHI 2.9 1.5 0.4
28 Johni Broome PHI 2.2 1.7 0.5
29 Kyle Lowry PHI 1.5 0.8 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.