NBA games

PHI @ NY

NBA Madison Square Garden ·Final
98–137
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
PHI2526272098
NY33413528137

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NY) / 10 (PHI) games this season
PHI away
home NY
31% 69%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Paul George S 26 17 3 3
Joel Embiid S 25 14 4 1
Tyrese Maxey S 27 13 3 2
VJ Edgecombe S 28 12 1 2
Kelly Oubre Jr. S 27 12 5 1
Justin Edwards 16 8 0 0
Dominick Barlow 13 7 3 0
Quentin Grimes 24 5 1 4
Trendon Watford 14 5 1 1
Dalen Terry 12 3 0 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Brunson S 31 35 1 3
OG Anunoby S 30 18 3 1
Mikal Bridges S 27 17 2 5
Karl-Anthony Towns S 20 17 6 6
Miles McBride 16 8 0 2
Josh Hart S 26 8 8 6
Tyler Kolek 10 8 0 4
Ariel Hukporti 17 5 9 0
Jose Alvarado 9 5 1 1
Mohamed Diawara 8 5 2 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Mikal Bridges · Dunk (2 pts) · 10:38 Q1
"Mikal Bridges makes 1-foot running dunk (Josh Hart assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Joel Embiid PHI
14%
2 Jalen Brunson NY
13%
3 Tyrese Maxey PHI
11%
4 VJ Edgecombe PHI
10%
5 Karl-Anthony Towns NY
10%
6 OG Anunoby NY
9%
7 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI
9%
8 Paul George PHI
8%
9 Josh Hart NY
8%
10 Mikal Bridges NY
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
7%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
56%
Jumper
19%
Layup
16%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Joel Embiid PHI 27.8 8.5 5.3
2 Tyrese Maxey PHI 25.0 4.2 5.9
3 Jalen Brunson NY 24.9 3.0 7.1
4 Karl-Anthony Towns NY 20.5 10.9 6.2
5 OG Anunoby NY 17.9 7.0 1.8
6 Paul George PHI 17.5 4.2 3.3
7 VJ Edgecombe PHI 16.1 7.1 3.8
8 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI 11.2 5.4 1.4
9 Josh Hart NY 10.9 6.9 3.6
10 Mikal Bridges NY 10.9 2.7 1.7
11 Quentin Grimes PHI 7.7 3.3 1.9
12 Andre Drummond PHI 6.8 6.2 1.2
13 Jose Alvarado NY 6.8 2.1 2.3
14 Mitchell Robinson NY 6.2 6.8 0.4
15 Miles McBride NY 5.6 1.6 1.1
16 Jordan Clarkson NY 5.2 1.5 0.8
17 Justin Edwards PHI 4.3 2.1 0.7
18 Jeremy Sochan NY 4.0 2.2 0.7
19 Trendon Watford PHI 3.6 1.6 0.9
20 Landry Shamet NY 3.3 0.9 0.5
21 Tyler Kolek NY 3.3 1.1 1.7
22 Dominick Barlow PHI 3.2 3.1 0.4
23 Adem Bona PHI 3.2 2.6 0.5
24 Pacome Dadiet NY 2.8 1.1 0.4
25 Ariel Hukporti NY 2.6 3.1 0.4
26 Mohamed Diawara NY 2.4 1.0 0.9
27 Dalen Terry PHI 2.1 0.9 0.6
28 Jabari Walker PHI 2.1 1.2 0.3
29 Johni Broome PHI 2.0 1.6 0.5
30 Kyle Lowry PHI 1.5 0.9 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.