NBA games

SA @ MIN

NBA Target Center ·Final
139–109
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SA36383629139
MIN27342325109

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIN) / 10 (SA) games this season
SA away
home MIN
70% 30%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Stephon Castle S 30 32 11 6
De'Aaron Fox S 24 21 4 9
Victor Wembanyama S 27 19 6 2
Julian Champagnie S 26 18 5 2
Dylan Harper 26 15 5 2
Devin Vassell S 27 11 5 4
Luke Kornet 14 6 6 1
Carter Bryant 13 3 6 1
Harrison Barnes 7 3 4 2
Kelly Olynyk 8 3 4 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Edwards S 36 24 2 2
Terrence Shannon Jr. 22 21 2 1
Naz Reid 32 18 7 1
Jaden McDaniels S 23 13 1 3
Ayo Dosunmu S 23 10 1 9
Mike Conley 19 6 0 4
Joan Beringer 8 4 2 0
Julius Randle S 24 3 7 1
Julian Phillips 8 3 0 1
Bones Hyland 8 3 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
De'Aaron Fox · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:15 Q1
"De'Aaron Fox makes 25-foot three pointer (Stephon Castle assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jaden McDaniels MIN
13%
2 Anthony Edwards MIN
12%
3 Julius Randle MIN
12%
4 De'Aaron Fox SA
11%
5 Stephon Castle SA
11%
6 Victor Wembanyama SA
9%
7 Rudy Gobert MIN
9%
8 Ayo Dosunmu MIN
9%
9 Devin Vassell SA
7%
10 Julian Champagnie SA
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
10%
Dunk
10%
Free Throw
17%
Jumper
39%
Layup
25%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Victor Wembanyama SA 30.0 11.3 3.7
2 Anthony Edwards MIN 22.0 5.6 3.2
3 Stephon Castle SA 20.2 4.6 6.2
4 Julius Randle MIN 19.7 7.5 3.6
5 De'Aaron Fox SA 19.6 3.8 5.9
6 Jaden McDaniels MIN 16.7 6.1 2.5
7 Ayo Dosunmu MIN 16.5 3.8 3.4
8 Dylan Harper SA 13.4 5.1 2.4
9 Naz Reid MIN 13.1 7.2 2.3
10 Devin Vassell SA 12.8 4.8 2.7
11 Terrence Shannon Jr. MIN 12.3 2.8 1.9
12 Julian Champagnie SA 9.8 5.2 1.5
13 Keldon Johnson SA 8.3 3.8 1.3
14 Rudy Gobert MIN 8.1 9.3 2.2
15 Luke Kornet SA 5.3 4.7 0.9
16 Joan Beringer MIN 5.2 3.7 0.5
17 Mike Conley MIN 4.6 1.3 2.1
18 Bones Hyland MIN 4.6 1.5 1.4
19 Kyle Anderson MIN 4.2 2.2 2.1
20 Jaylen Clark MIN 4.1 1.2 1.0
21 Carter Bryant SA 4.0 2.2 1.3
22 Harrison Barnes SA 2.9 1.4 0.4
23 Kelly Olynyk SA 2.9 1.4 0.9
24 Julian Phillips MIN 2.8 0.9 0.5
25 Lindy Waters III SA 2.7 1.1 0.6
26 Joe Ingles MIN 2.5 1.0 1.3
27 Jordan McLaughlin SA 2.4 1.1 0.7
28 Bismack Biyombo SA 2.0 1.1 0.4
29 Mason Plumlee SA 1.4 1.5 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.