NBA games

MIN @ SA

NBA Frost Bank Center ·Final
97–126
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIN3017262497
SA34253235126

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (SA) / 10 (MIN) games this season
MIN away
home SA
38% 62%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Edwards S 39 20 2 2
Julius Randle S 36 17 10 1
Jaden McDaniels S 30 17 6 2
Ayo Dosunmu S 33 16 9 4
Naz Reid 31 12 5 2
Mike Conley 15 5 1 2
Rudy Gobert S 23 4 5 0
Joan Beringer 3 3 3 0
Terrence Shannon Jr. 17 2 0 4
Kyle Anderson 3 1 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Victor Wembanyama S 33 27 17 5
Keldon Johnson 22 21 2 0
De'Aaron Fox S 34 18 4 5
Stephon Castle S 27 17 4 6
Dylan Harper 25 12 10 2
Devin Vassell S 32 12 3 2
Julian Champagnie S 29 8 4 0
Carter Bryant 12 3 4 2
Kelly Olynyk 2 3 0 0
Lindy Waters III 2 3 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
De'Aaron Fox · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:43 Q1
"De'Aaron Fox makes 8-foot two point shot (Stephon Castle assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Victor Wembanyama SA
13%
2 Jaden McDaniels MIN
13%
3 De'Aaron Fox SA
11%
4 Julius Randle MIN
11%
5 Stephon Castle SA
11%
6 Rudy Gobert MIN
9%
7 Anthony Edwards MIN
9%
8 Ayo Dosunmu MIN
9%
9 Devin Vassell SA
8%
10 Julian Champagnie SA
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
19%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
16%
Jumper
32%
Layup
25%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Victor Wembanyama SA 28.7 10.3 3.5
2 Anthony Edwards MIN 21.0 5.7 3.2
3 Stephon Castle SA 20.1 4.9 6.4
4 De'Aaron Fox SA 20.0 4.0 5.9
5 Julius Randle MIN 19.8 7.3 3.5
6 Ayo Dosunmu MIN 18.3 3.6 3.6
7 Jaden McDaniels MIN 16.2 6.5 2.5
8 Terrence Shannon Jr. MIN 15.0 3.1 2.0
9 Devin Vassell SA 13.4 4.9 2.8
10 Dylan Harper SA 13.1 4.6 2.2
11 Naz Reid MIN 12.6 7.1 2.2
12 Rudy Gobert MIN 9.7 9.6 2.3
13 Julian Champagnie SA 9.7 5.2 1.6
14 Keldon Johnson SA 8.2 4.0 1.4
15 Luke Kornet SA 5.8 5.3 1.1
16 Carter Bryant SA 5.6 2.4 1.4
17 Bones Hyland MIN 5.3 1.4 1.7
18 Mike Conley MIN 4.8 1.6 2.2
19 Joan Beringer MIN 4.6 3.4 0.3
20 Harrison Barnes SA 4.5 1.6 0.6
21 Kyle Anderson MIN 4.2 2.2 2.2
22 Jaylen Clark MIN 3.8 1.3 0.8
23 Joe Ingles MIN 2.9 1.2 1.2
24 Lindy Waters III SA 2.8 1.0 0.5
25 Julian Phillips MIN 2.6 0.7 0.3
26 Kelly Olynyk SA 2.4 1.1 0.8
27 Jordan McLaughlin SA 1.9 0.8 0.5
28 Mason Plumlee SA 1.7 1.5 0.4
29 Bismack Biyombo SA 1.5 0.8 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.