NBA games

SA @ MIN

NBA Target Center ·Final
109–114
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SA30262825109
MIN34262034114

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIN) / 10 (SA) games this season
SA away
home MIN
59% 41%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Dylan Harper 27 24 7 1
De'Aaron Fox S 37 24 4 3
Stephon Castle S 37 20 6 4
Devin Vassell S 33 14 1 3
Julian Champagnie S 30 8 5 3
Luke Kornet 26 7 9 1
Keldon Johnson 17 4 3 1
Victor Wembanyama S 12 4 4 1
Carter Bryant 12 2 1 0
Harrison Barnes 9 2 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Edwards S 40 36 6 2
Naz Reid 31 15 9 4
Jaden McDaniels S 41 14 6 0
Julius Randle S 38 12 8 3
Rudy Gobert S 30 11 13 4
Ayo Dosunmu S 30 10 5 3
Terrence Shannon Jr. 20 8 2 2
Mike Conley 11 8 0 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Victor Wembanyama · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:15 Q1
"Victor Wembanyama makes 5-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jaden McDaniels MIN
14%
2 Stephon Castle SA
11%
3 Julius Randle MIN
11%
4 De'Aaron Fox SA
11%
5 Anthony Edwards MIN
11%
6 Victor Wembanyama SA
10%
7 Rudy Gobert MIN
10%
8 Devin Vassell SA
7%
9 Julian Champagnie SA
7%
10 Mike Conley MIN
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
7%
Dunk
9%
Free Throw
22%
Jumper
29%
Layup
34%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Victor Wembanyama SA 27.4 12.6 3.2
2 Stephon Castle SA 20.4 5.3 7.1
3 De'Aaron Fox SA 20.0 3.8 6.3
4 Julius Randle MIN 19.9 6.7 3.7
5 Anthony Edwards MIN 18.6 5.3 3.5
6 Ayo Dosunmu MIN 18.4 3.4 3.6
7 Jaden McDaniels MIN 18.1 6.6 2.8
8 Terrence Shannon Jr. MIN 15.0 3.0 1.8
9 Devin Vassell SA 13.1 4.9 2.7
10 Dylan Harper SA 12.5 4.3 2.5
11 Naz Reid MIN 12.3 6.8 2.0
12 Julian Champagnie SA 10.4 5.5 1.4
13 Rudy Gobert MIN 9.1 9.4 2.4
14 Keldon Johnson SA 9.1 4.5 1.4
15 Carter Bryant SA 6.2 2.8 1.6
16 Luke Kornet SA 6.1 4.9 1.3
17 Bones Hyland MIN 6.0 1.6 2.0
18 Harrison Barnes SA 5.6 1.8 0.7
19 Mike Conley MIN 5.3 1.6 2.3
20 Joan Beringer MIN 5.2 3.6 0.5
21 Kyle Anderson MIN 4.8 2.4 2.4
22 Jaylen Clark MIN 4.4 1.5 1.0
23 Joe Ingles MIN 3.5 1.4 1.6
24 Lindy Waters III SA 3.3 1.3 0.7
25 Julian Phillips MIN 3.1 0.9 0.6
26 Kelly Olynyk SA 2.8 1.4 1.0
27 Jordan McLaughlin SA 2.4 1.1 0.7
28 Mason Plumlee SA 2.1 1.8 0.6
29 Bismack Biyombo SA 2.0 1.1 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.