NBA games

SA @ MIN

NBA Target Center ·Final
115–108
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SA23283529115
MIN22292829108

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIN) / 10 (SA) games this season
SA away
home MIN
48% 52%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Victor Wembanyama S 37 39 15 1
De'Aaron Fox S 35 17 3 5
Stephon Castle S 40 13 4 12
Devin Vassell S 36 13 6 3
Keldon Johnson 19 11 2 1
Dylan Harper 20 8 4 1
Julian Champagnie S 29 6 12 3
Carter Bryant 8 6 0 0
Luke Kornet 11 2 1 0
Harrison Barnes 6 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Edwards S 41 32 14 6
Naz Reid 32 18 9 5
Jaden McDaniels S 40 17 7 2
Rudy Gobert S 31 13 7 2
Julius Randle S 31 12 6 0
Ayo Dosunmu 32 11 7 5
Terrence Shannon Jr. 28 5 2 2
Mike Conley S 4 0 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Victor Wembanyama · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:44 Q1
"Victor Wembanyama makes 1-foot alley oop dunk (Devin Vassell assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jaden McDaniels MIN
14%
2 Julius Randle MIN
12%
3 De'Aaron Fox SA
12%
4 Stephon Castle SA
11%
5 Terrence Shannon Jr. MIN
10%
6 Victor Wembanyama SA
10%
7 Rudy Gobert MIN
10%
8 Devin Vassell SA
7%
9 Julian Champagnie SA
7%
10 Mike Conley MIN
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
6%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
16%
Jumper
37%
Layup
34%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Victor Wembanyama SA 30.9 12.4 3.8
2 De'Aaron Fox SA 21.6 4.0 6.5
3 Julius Randle MIN 21.6 6.9 4.1
4 Stephon Castle SA 20.6 5.5 6.8
5 Anthony Edwards MIN 18.7 4.7 3.4
6 Jaden McDaniels MIN 18.1 6.3 2.9
7 Ayo Dosunmu MIN 18.0 3.5 3.3
8 Terrence Shannon Jr. MIN 14.3 2.8 1.7
9 Dylan Harper SA 13.3 4.6 3.0
10 Devin Vassell SA 12.8 5.2 2.4
11 Naz Reid MIN 12.3 6.1 1.7
12 Julian Champagnie SA 10.1 4.7 1.4
13 Keldon Johnson SA 9.7 5.1 1.5
14 Rudy Gobert MIN 8.6 9.8 2.5
15 Luke Kornet SA 6.6 5.3 1.5
16 Bones Hyland MIN 6.4 1.7 2.1
17 Mike Conley MIN 6.0 1.6 2.7
18 Carter Bryant SA 6.0 2.9 1.7
19 Harrison Barnes SA 5.9 1.6 0.8
20 Joan Beringer MIN 5.6 3.7 0.6
21 Kyle Anderson MIN 5.2 2.5 2.5
22 Jaylen Clark MIN 4.8 1.6 1.1
23 Joe Ingles MIN 3.9 1.7 1.6
24 Lindy Waters III SA 3.7 1.4 0.7
25 Julian Phillips MIN 3.5 1.1 0.6
26 Kelly Olynyk SA 3.3 1.6 1.1
27 Jordan McLaughlin SA 2.8 1.3 0.8
28 Mason Plumlee SA 2.5 2.0 0.7
29 Bismack Biyombo SA 2.3 1.3 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.