NBA games

MIN @ SA

NBA Frost Bank Center ·Final
95–133
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIN1718283295
SA24353935133

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (SA) / 10 (MIN) games this season
MIN away
home SA
40% 60%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Julius Randle S 27 12 5 2
Jaden McDaniels S 20 12 3 4
Terrence Shannon Jr. S 25 12 5 1
Anthony Edwards 24 12 3 0
Naz Reid 21 11 7 0
Kyle Anderson 14 8 3 4
Joan Beringer 8 7 3 0
Joe Ingles 10 7 2 0
Rudy Gobert S 28 5 10 1
Jaylen Clark 15 3 0 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Stephon Castle S 24 21 4 4
Victor Wembanyama S 26 19 15 2
De'Aaron Fox S 26 16 0 2
Julian Champagnie S 22 12 3 2
Harrison Barnes 15 12 2 0
Dylan Harper 22 11 7 5
Devin Vassell S 22 10 5 4
Keldon Johnson 19 9 10 1
Lindy Waters III 8 8 4 1
Kelly Olynyk 10 5 1 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Victor Wembanyama · Dunk (2 pts) · 10:34 Q1
"Victor Wembanyama makes tip in dunk"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jaden McDaniels MIN
13%
2 De'Aaron Fox SA
11%
3 Stephon Castle SA
11%
4 Julius Randle MIN
10%
5 Rudy Gobert MIN
9%
6 Victor Wembanyama SA
9%
7 Ayo Dosunmu MIN
8%
8 Devin Vassell SA
8%
9 Terrence Shannon Jr. MIN
8%
10 Julian Champagnie SA
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
8%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
18%
Jumper
28%
Layup
39%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Victor Wembanyama SA 31.0 12.3 3.9
2 Julius Randle MIN 22.1 6.8 4.0
3 De'Aaron Fox SA 21.5 4.0 6.4
4 Anthony Edwards MIN 21.2 5.0 3.7
5 Stephon Castle SA 20.6 5.5 7.1
6 Ayo Dosunmu MIN 19.9 3.8 3.6
7 Jaden McDaniels MIN 18.4 6.2 2.4
8 Dylan Harper SA 13.8 4.2 2.8
9 Terrence Shannon Jr. MIN 13.2 2.3 1.5
10 Devin Vassell SA 13.0 4.9 2.5
11 Naz Reid MIN 11.8 6.2 1.8
12 Keldon Johnson SA 10.6 5.1 1.5
13 Julian Champagnie SA 10.1 5.4 1.4
14 Rudy Gobert MIN 8.8 10.0 2.4
15 Bones Hyland MIN 7.6 2.2 2.4
16 Luke Kornet SA 6.6 5.4 1.5
17 Mike Conley MIN 6.0 1.6 2.3
18 Harrison Barnes SA 5.6 1.7 0.8
19 Jaylen Clark MIN 4.9 1.7 1.1
20 Carter Bryant SA 4.4 2.6 1.4
21 Kyle Anderson MIN 3.9 1.9 2.3
22 Joan Beringer MIN 3.5 3.0 0.3
23 Julian Phillips MIN 2.4 0.7 0.3
24 Lindy Waters III SA 2.4 0.8 0.7
25 Joe Ingles MIN 2.4 1.0 1.3
26 Jordan McLaughlin SA 2.1 0.8 0.7
27 Kelly Olynyk SA 2.0 1.2 0.8
28 Mason Plumlee SA 1.7 1.5 0.4
29 Bismack Biyombo SA 1.6 1.0 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.