NBA games

MIN @ SA

NBA Frost Bank Center ·Final
104–102
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIN24212435104
SA23222730102

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (SA) / 10 (MIN) games this season
MIN away
home SA
44% 56%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Julius Randle S 41 21 10 2
Anthony Edwards 25 18 3 3
Jaden McDaniels S 36 16 5 2
Terrence Shannon Jr. S 35 16 5 1
Naz Reid 30 12 9 1
Mike Conley S 24 12 2 6
Rudy Gobert S 30 7 10 3
Jaylen Clark 7 2 1 0
Bones Hyland 12 0 1 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Dylan Harper 29 18 4 4
Stephon Castle S 28 17 5 5
Julian Champagnie S 32 17 7 0
Devin Vassell S 36 14 5 3
Victor Wembanyama S 40 11 15 5
Keldon Johnson 24 11 2 1
De'Aaron Fox S 33 10 3 6
Luke Kornet 8 2 2 0
Harrison Barnes 10 2 4 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Victor Wembanyama · Layup (2 pts) · 10:14 Q1
"Victor Wembanyama makes two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Anthony Edwards MIN
12%
2 De'Aaron Fox SA
11%
3 Jaden McDaniels MIN
11%
4 Stephon Castle SA
10%
5 Victor Wembanyama SA
10%
6 Rudy Gobert MIN
9%
7 Julius Randle MIN
9%
8 Terrence Shannon Jr. MIN
9%
9 Julian Champagnie SA
7%
10 Devin Vassell SA
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
14%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
8%
Jumper
36%
Layup
38%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Victor Wembanyama SA 25.6 11.3 3.8
2 Julius Randle MIN 22.3 6.6 4.3
3 Anthony Edwards MIN 21.9 4.7 3.8
4 De'Aaron Fox SA 21.4 4.0 6.3
5 Stephon Castle SA 20.0 5.6 7.4
6 Jaden McDaniels MIN 18.2 6.2 2.5
7 Devin Vassell SA 12.9 4.7 2.2
8 Dylan Harper SA 12.9 3.9 2.7
9 Naz Reid MIN 11.6 6.0 1.8
10 Terrence Shannon Jr. MIN 11.0 1.9 1.4
11 Keldon Johnson SA 9.8 4.8 1.2
12 Julian Champagnie SA 9.4 4.9 1.3
13 Bones Hyland MIN 8.5 2.5 2.4
14 Rudy Gobert MIN 8.2 9.7 2.1
15 Luke Kornet SA 6.6 5.5 1.6
16 Mike Conley MIN 5.1 1.3 1.9
17 Harrison Barnes SA 5.0 1.1 0.6
18 Kyle Anderson MIN 4.1 2.0 2.4
19 Jaylen Clark MIN 4.1 1.6 1.0
20 Joan Beringer MIN 3.9 3.1 0.3
21 Joe Ingles MIN 2.7 1.1 1.3
22 Julian Phillips MIN 2.6 0.8 0.4
23 Lindy Waters III SA 2.6 0.9 0.6
24 Jordan McLaughlin SA 2.3 0.9 0.7
25 Kelly Olynyk SA 2.1 1.3 0.8
26 Mason Plumlee SA 1.7 1.6 0.4
27 Bismack Biyombo SA 1.7 1.0 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.