NBA games

ORL @ DET

NBA Little Caesars Arena ·Final
94–116
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ORL2227153094
DET20402333116

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DET) / 10 (ORL) games this season
ORL away
home DET
44% 56%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Paolo Banchero S 42 38 9 6
Desmond Bane S 38 16 3 3
Wendell Carter Jr. S 38 13 5 2
Anthony Black 33 11 5 1
Jalen Suggs S 36 6 4 4
Jamal Cain S 24 5 4 1
Moritz Wagner 10 5 2 0
Tristan da Silva 8 0 0 0
Jevon Carter 11 0 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cade Cunningham S 39 32 1 12
Tobias Harris S 36 30 9 2
Daniss Jenkins 29 16 3 5
Jalen Duren S 37 15 15 3
Duncan Robinson S 36 10 6 3
Ausar Thompson S 34 8 4 4
Javonte Green 14 3 2 0
Chaz Lanier 1 2 0 0
Ronald Holland II 1 0 0 0
Marcus Sasser 1 0 0 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jalen Duren · Layup (2 pts) · 11:04 Q1
"Jalen Duren makes two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Paolo Banchero ORL
16%
2 Cade Cunningham DET
13%
3 Tobias Harris DET
11%
4 Jalen Duren DET
11%
5 Ausar Thompson DET
10%
6 Desmond Bane ORL
8%
7 Jamal Cain ORL
8%
8 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL
8%
9 Duncan Robinson DET
7%
10 Jalen Suggs ORL
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
11%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
33%
Jumper
32%
Layup
20%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Cade Cunningham DET 26.1 6.1 7.0
2 Paolo Banchero ORL 24.7 7.8 6.4
3 Tobias Harris DET 18.0 6.7 1.8
4 Desmond Bane ORL 16.9 4.3 2.3
5 Jalen Duren DET 15.0 9.1 2.8
6 Jalen Suggs ORL 13.1 3.9 4.1
7 Duncan Robinson DET 11.9 2.9 2.3
8 Ausar Thompson DET 11.1 8.0 3.6
9 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL 10.9 7.3 2.1
10 Anthony Black ORL 9.1 3.5 1.7
11 Paul Reed DET 7.9 5.0 0.9
12 Daniss Jenkins DET 7.4 2.7 3.3
13 Isaiah Stewart DET 6.6 3.9 0.7
14 Kevin Huerter DET 6.4 2.0 2.4
15 Jamal Cain ORL 6.0 3.1 0.8
16 Javonte Green DET 5.9 3.3 0.8
17 Tristan da Silva ORL 5.6 3.0 1.1
18 Caris LeVert DET 5.1 2.4 1.4
19 Jevon Carter ORL 4.7 1.6 1.3
20 Goga Bitadze ORL 4.7 4.8 0.6
21 Ronald Holland II DET 4.3 2.2 0.8
22 Jett Howard ORL 3.2 0.7 0.4
23 Jase Richardson ORL 2.5 0.7 0.6
24 Marcus Sasser DET 2.3 0.7 1.1
25 Tolu Smith DET 1.9 1.4 0.7
26 Moritz Wagner ORL 1.8 1.4 0.3
27 Chaz Lanier DET 1.2 0.4 0.4
28 Noah Penda ORL 1.1 0.7 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.