NBA games

DET @ ORL

NBA Kia Center ·Final
93–79
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DET2612243193
ORL253511879

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (ORL) / 10 (DET) games this season
DET away
home ORL
35% 65%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cade Cunningham S 42 32 10 3
Tobias Harris S 38 22 10 0
Duncan Robinson S 36 14 5 3
Jalen Duren S 32 8 9 1
Daniss Jenkins 19 7 1 3
Paul Reed 11 6 6 0
Ausar Thompson S 37 4 10 6
Javonte Green 12 0 1 0
Isaiah Stewart 8 0 0 0
Caris LeVert 5 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Desmond Bane S 38 17 3 1
Paolo Banchero S 41 17 10 6
Tristan da Silva 23 10 6 0
Wendell Carter Jr. S 32 9 0 2
Anthony Black 34 8 3 1
Jalen Suggs S 38 7 7 7
Goga Bitadze 13 6 4 1
Jamal Cain S 20 3 4 2
Jevon Carter 2 2 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Paolo Banchero · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:24 Q1
"Paolo Banchero makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Duren DET
13%
2 Cade Cunningham DET
12%
3 Tobias Harris DET
11%
4 Paolo Banchero ORL
11%
5 Desmond Bane ORL
11%
6 Ausar Thompson DET
10%
7 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL
10%
8 Jamal Cain ORL
9%
9 Duncan Robinson DET
7%
10 Jalen Suggs ORL
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
26%
Free Throw
6%
Jumper
16%
Layup
51%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Cade Cunningham DET 25.7 5.1 7.3
2 Paolo Banchero ORL 25.1 7.8 6.7
3 Desmond Bane ORL 17.9 4.4 2.8
4 Jalen Duren DET 17.0 9.2 2.8
5 Tobias Harris DET 15.7 5.6 1.8
6 Jalen Suggs ORL 13.6 3.5 4.2
7 Duncan Robinson DET 11.4 2.6 2.2
8 Ausar Thompson DET 11.1 7.6 3.4
9 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL 10.5 7.7 1.9
10 Anthony Black ORL 9.0 3.8 1.9
11 Isaiah Stewart DET 7.6 4.2 0.8
12 Daniss Jenkins DET 7.6 2.7 4.0
13 Paul Reed DET 7.1 4.8 1.0
14 Jamal Cain ORL 6.3 2.9 0.8
15 Tristan da Silva ORL 5.7 2.5 1.2
16 Goga Bitadze ORL 5.4 5.7 0.9
17 Javonte Green DET 5.2 3.0 0.7
18 Caris LeVert DET 5.0 2.3 1.4
19 Ronald Holland II DET 4.2 2.3 0.8
20 Jevon Carter ORL 3.3 1.0 1.1
21 Jett Howard ORL 3.3 0.7 0.5
22 Jase Richardson ORL 2.6 0.7 0.7
23 Marcus Sasser DET 2.2 0.7 1.1
24 Moritz Wagner ORL 1.9 1.4 0.4
25 Tolu Smith DET 1.9 1.4 0.6
26 Noah Penda ORL 1.3 0.7 0.7
27 Chaz Lanier DET 1.2 0.4 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.