NBA games

ORL @ DET

NBA Little Caesars Arena ·Final
109–116
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ORL26341930109
DET38282327116

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DET) / 10 (ORL) games this season
ORL away
home DET
55% 45%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Paolo Banchero S 41 45 9 7
Anthony Black 39 19 5 3
Desmond Bane S 34 18 5 1
Jalen Suggs S 37 10 2 5
Wendell Carter Jr. S 34 9 4 4
Jamal Cain S 25 5 4 1
Tristan da Silva 16 3 3 0
Goga Bitadze 14 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cade Cunningham S 44 45 4 5
Tobias Harris S 31 23 8 1
Jalen Duren S 28 12 9 2
Duncan Robinson S 25 12 3 1
Ausar Thompson S 36 6 15 6
Daniss Jenkins 16 6 0 2
Isaiah Stewart 20 5 5 0
Javonte Green 15 5 2 1
Caris LeVert 25 2 3 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jalen Duren · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:44 Q1
"Jalen Duren makes 2-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Duren DET
15%
2 Tobias Harris DET
13%
3 Desmond Bane ORL
13%
4 Ausar Thompson DET
12%
5 Paolo Banchero ORL
12%
6 Cade Cunningham DET
11%
7 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL
10%
8 Duncan Robinson DET
7%
9 Jalen Suggs ORL
7%
10 Jamal Cain ORL
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
55%
Free Throw
12%
Jumper
12%
Layup
20%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Cade Cunningham DET 24.1 5.8 8.6
2 Paolo Banchero ORL 23.3 7.6 6.3
3 Jalen Duren DET 18.6 9.4 3.3
4 Desmond Bane ORL 17.9 4.3 2.8
5 Tobias Harris DET 15.4 5.5 2.3
6 Jalen Suggs ORL 14.1 3.8 4.6
7 Duncan Robinson DET 12.4 2.7 2.5
8 Ausar Thompson DET 11.4 7.1 3.6
9 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL 10.5 7.7 1.8
10 Daniss Jenkins DET 9.7 3.1 4.7
11 Isaiah Stewart DET 8.3 4.6 1.0
12 Anthony Black ORL 8.0 3.4 1.7
13 Paul Reed DET 7.4 4.9 1.1
14 Javonte Green DET 6.1 3.4 0.8
15 Tristan da Silva ORL 6.1 2.8 1.4
16 Jamal Cain ORL 6.0 2.8 0.8
17 Caris LeVert DET 5.9 2.4 1.4
18 Goga Bitadze ORL 5.8 6.1 1.0
19 Ronald Holland II DET 4.6 2.4 0.8
20 Jevon Carter ORL 3.4 1.1 1.1
21 Jett Howard ORL 3.4 0.7 0.5
22 Jase Richardson ORL 2.7 0.8 0.7
23 Marcus Sasser DET 2.6 0.7 1.1
24 Moritz Wagner ORL 2.0 1.5 0.4
25 Tolu Smith DET 1.9 1.3 0.7
26 Noah Penda ORL 1.3 0.7 0.7
27 Chaz Lanier DET 1.3 0.4 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.