NBA games

DET @ ORL

NBA Kia Center ·Final
88–94
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DET2725171988
ORL2628211994

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (ORL) / 10 (DET) games this season
DET away
home ORL
46% 54%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cade Cunningham S 39 25 9 6
Tobias Harris S 35 20 6 0
Jalen Duren S 31 12 8 3
Isaiah Stewart 17 8 3 1
Duncan Robinson S 29 7 1 0
Ausar Thompson S 32 6 9 1
Javonte Green 17 5 5 0
Daniss Jenkins 13 3 2 4
Caris LeVert 25 2 5 3
Kevin Huerter 3 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Desmond Bane S 37 22 5 1
Franz Wagner S 24 19 5 3
Paolo Banchero S 40 18 8 4
Wendell Carter Jr. S 35 12 11 4
Jamal Cain 24 8 9 0
Tristan da Silva 14 6 4 1
Jalen Suggs S 35 5 2 2
Goga Bitadze 13 2 6 0
Anthony Black 18 2 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Wendell Carter Jr. · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:32 Q1
"Wendell Carter Jr. makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jalen Suggs assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Franz Wagner ORL
13%
2 Jalen Duren DET
12%
3 Paolo Banchero ORL
11%
4 Tobias Harris DET
11%
5 Cade Cunningham DET
10%
6 Desmond Bane ORL
10%
7 Ausar Thompson DET
9%
8 Jalen Suggs ORL
9%
9 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL
9%
10 Duncan Robinson DET
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
11%
Dunk
10%
Free Throw
19%
Jumper
31%
Layup
28%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Paolo Banchero ORL 24.6 8.2 6.6
2 Cade Cunningham DET 21.4 5.1 8.7
3 Franz Wagner ORL 18.7 4.6 3.4
4 Desmond Bane ORL 18.4 4.5 3.2
5 Jalen Duren DET 18.0 9.7 3.3
6 Tobias Harris DET 15.5 5.0 2.4
7 Jalen Suggs ORL 14.4 4.1 5.2
8 Duncan Robinson DET 12.1 2.5 2.5
9 Daniss Jenkins DET 12.0 3.4 4.7
10 Ausar Thompson DET 11.0 6.4 3.8
11 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL 10.6 7.3 1.7
12 Kevin Huerter DET 8.5 2.8 3.3
13 Isaiah Stewart DET 8.1 4.5 1.0
14 Paul Reed DET 8.0 5.0 1.2
15 Anthony Black ORL 7.8 3.4 1.8
16 Goga Bitadze ORL 6.4 6.3 1.1
17 Tristan da Silva ORL 6.2 2.7 1.6
18 Jamal Cain ORL 6.0 2.4 1.0
19 Caris LeVert DET 5.6 2.1 1.3
20 Javonte Green DET 5.3 2.8 0.7
21 Ronald Holland II DET 5.0 2.4 0.7
22 Jett Howard ORL 3.9 0.9 0.5
23 Jevon Carter ORL 3.7 1.2 1.1
24 Jase Richardson ORL 3.0 0.9 0.7
25 Marcus Sasser DET 2.8 0.8 1.0
26 Moritz Wagner ORL 2.3 1.6 0.4
27 Tolu Smith DET 2.0 1.4 0.6
28 Noah Penda ORL 1.7 0.8 0.7
29 Chaz Lanier DET 1.3 0.5 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.