NBA games

DET @ ORL

NBA Kia Center ·Final
105–113
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DET26282526105
ORL26352626113

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (ORL) / 10 (DET) games this season
DET away
home ORL
37% 63%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cade Cunningham S 41 27 5 9
Tobias Harris S 38 23 7 2
Ausar Thompson S 37 17 8 3
Duncan Robinson S 28 10 0 3
Jalen Duren S 27 8 9 1
Javonte Green 23 6 1 1
Daniss Jenkins 7 5 2 0
Paul Reed 7 4 5 0
Isaiah Stewart 12 3 3 0
Caris LeVert 4 2 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Paolo Banchero S 38 25 12 9
Desmond Bane S 38 25 7 0
Franz Wagner S 34 17 5 6
Jalen Suggs S 33 15 3 3
Wendell Carter Jr. S 37 14 17 3
Anthony Black 26 8 1 1
Jamal Cain 14 7 1 0
Goga Bitadze 11 2 2 0
Tristan da Silva 9 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Desmond Bane · Layup (2 pts) · 11:43 Q1
"Desmond Bane makes two point shot (Franz Wagner assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Duren DET
15%
2 Franz Wagner ORL
13%
3 Paolo Banchero ORL
11%
4 Desmond Bane ORL
10%
5 Cade Cunningham DET
10%
6 Ausar Thompson DET
9%
7 Tobias Harris DET
9%
8 Jalen Suggs ORL
7%
9 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL
7%
10 Duncan Robinson DET
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
11%
Free Throw
43%
Jumper
10%
Layup
35%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Paolo Banchero ORL 22.9 7.8 6.2
2 Cade Cunningham DET 20.5 4.9 9.2
3 Jalen Duren DET 20.2 10.1 3.9
4 Desmond Bane ORL 18.7 4.6 3.7
5 Franz Wagner ORL 16.5 4.3 3.0
6 Jalen Suggs ORL 15.2 4.1 5.7
7 Tobias Harris DET 13.8 5.4 2.7
8 Duncan Robinson DET 13.3 3.0 2.6
9 Daniss Jenkins DET 13.3 3.6 5.3
10 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL 11.8 6.4 1.7
11 Ausar Thompson DET 10.6 6.3 4.0
12 Kevin Huerter DET 9.5 2.9 3.0
13 Isaiah Stewart DET 8.5 4.5 1.0
14 Paul Reed DET 8.3 5.1 1.5
15 Anthony Black ORL 7.9 3.5 1.8
16 Tristan da Silva ORL 7.7 3.2 1.7
17 Caris LeVert DET 6.5 2.5 1.6
18 Goga Bitadze ORL 6.4 6.5 1.2
19 Jamal Cain ORL 6.3 2.7 1.1
20 Javonte Green DET 6.3 3.2 0.8
21 Ronald Holland II DET 6.0 2.7 0.9
22 Jett Howard ORL 4.8 1.2 0.7
23 Jevon Carter ORL 4.7 1.6 1.4
24 Jase Richardson ORL 3.8 1.3 0.9
25 Marcus Sasser DET 3.7 1.2 1.3
26 Moritz Wagner ORL 3.1 2.0 0.6
27 Noah Penda ORL 2.5 1.2 0.9
28 Tolu Smith DET 2.1 1.3 0.6
29 Chaz Lanier DET 1.4 0.4 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.