NBA games

PHI @ BOS

NBA TD Garden ·Final
109–100
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
PHI32233321109
BOS19312525100

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (BOS) / 10 (PHI) games this season
PHI away
home BOS
24% 76%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Joel Embiid S 39 34 12 6
Tyrese Maxey S 45 30 11 7
VJ Edgecombe S 44 23 6 4
Paul George S 42 13 3 1
Kelly Oubre Jr. S 31 6 5 2
Quentin Grimes 26 3 6 4
Andre Drummond 8 0 1 1
Dominick Barlow 2 0 0 0
Justin Edwards 2 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaylen Brown S 40 33 9 4
Derrick White S 45 26 6 4
Neemias Queta 33 17 12 1
Payton Pritchard 39 13 5 7
Sam Hauser 30 11 3 1
Hugo Gonzalez 13 0 3 0
Baylor Scheierman S 22 0 6 2
Ron Harper Jr. S 4 0 0 0
Luka Garza S 9 0 0 0
Jordan Walsh 5 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Joel Embiid · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:41 Q1
"Joel Embiid makes 14-foot jumper (Tyrese Maxey assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Sam Hauser BOS
13%
2 Jayson Tatum BOS
11%
3 Joel Embiid PHI
11%
4 VJ Edgecombe PHI
10%
5 Tyrese Maxey PHI
10%
6 Jaylen Brown BOS
10%
7 Paul George PHI
9%
8 Neemias Queta BOS
9%
9 Derrick White BOS
9%
10 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
77%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
2%
Jumper
10%
Layup
9%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Joel Embiid PHI 27.8 8.2 5.2
2 Jaylen Brown BOS 25.0 5.4 3.9
3 Tyrese Maxey PHI 24.7 3.9 5.8
4 Jayson Tatum BOS 24.3 10.7 6.7
5 Payton Pritchard BOS 16.4 3.4 5.1
6 Paul George PHI 16.1 4.4 3.2
7 VJ Edgecombe PHI 15.6 7.1 4.0
8 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI 11.7 5.5 1.4
9 Derrick White BOS 10.1 3.3 3.2
10 Neemias Queta BOS 8.9 7.9 1.3
11 Quentin Grimes PHI 8.8 3.0 1.7
12 Sam Hauser BOS 8.4 3.6 1.5
13 Luka Garza BOS 7.9 3.6 1.0
14 Baylor Scheierman BOS 7.6 2.9 1.3
15 Andre Drummond PHI 7.3 7.3 1.5
16 Nikola Vucevic BOS 7.2 4.2 2.1
17 Jordan Walsh BOS 5.2 3.6 1.2
18 Ron Harper Jr. BOS 5.0 1.8 0.9
19 Justin Edwards PHI 4.7 2.2 0.7
20 Trendon Watford PHI 4.5 2.0 1.1
21 Adem Bona PHI 4.2 2.9 0.7
22 Dominick Barlow PHI 3.2 3.0 0.4
23 Dalen Terry PHI 3.1 1.3 0.8
24 Dalano Banton BOS 3.1 1.7 1.2
25 Hugo Gonzalez BOS 2.5 1.5 0.4
26 Kyle Lowry PHI 2.5 1.3 0.6
27 Jabari Walker PHI 2.3 1.1 0.4
28 Johni Broome PHI 2.1 1.6 0.5
29 Amari Williams BOS 1.5 1.2 0.4
30 Max Shulga BOS 1.4 0.7 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.