NBA games

ORL @ DET

NBA Little Caesars Arena ·Final
83–98
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ORL2125162183
DET2521381498

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DET) / 10 (ORL) games this season
ORL away
home DET
41% 59%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Suggs S 32 19 6 4
Paolo Banchero S 34 18 6 8
Franz Wagner S 32 12 7 1
Desmond Bane S 34 12 4 2
Jase Richardson 3 6 0 0
Anthony Black 24 5 3 1
Tristan da Silva 17 3 3 0
Goga Bitadze 21 3 5 0
Wendell Carter Jr. S 24 3 5 0
Jamal Cain 8 2 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cade Cunningham S 37 27 6 11
Tobias Harris S 33 16 11 1
Jalen Duren S 32 11 9 4
Ausar Thompson S 28 11 8 1
Duncan Robinson S 32 10 6 3
Isaiah Stewart 16 10 5 0
Caris LeVert 14 4 1 0
Daniss Jenkins 11 4 2 2
Kevin Huerter 6 3 1 0
Javonte Green 23 2 5 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Tobias Harris · Layup (2 pts) · 11:11 Q1
"Tobias Harris makes two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Duren DET
16%
2 Paolo Banchero ORL
11%
3 Franz Wagner ORL
11%
4 Cade Cunningham DET
9%
5 Desmond Bane ORL
9%
6 Tobias Harris DET
9%
7 Ausar Thompson DET
8%
8 Paul Reed DET
7%
9 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL
7%
10 Duncan Robinson DET
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
65%
Jumper
7%
Layup
23%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jalen Duren DET 22.4 10.3 4.0
2 Paolo Banchero ORL 21.9 8.1 5.9
3 Cade Cunningham DET 20.5 4.3 9.0
4 Desmond Bane ORL 18.5 4.3 3.6
5 Franz Wagner ORL 16.0 3.7 2.9
6 Tobias Harris DET 15.3 4.6 3.0
7 Daniss Jenkins DET 14.6 4.0 5.7
8 Jalen Suggs ORL 13.8 4.0 6.0
9 Duncan Robinson DET 13.5 2.5 2.5
10 Kevin Huerter DET 11.9 3.1 3.3
11 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL 11.9 6.4 1.8
12 Ausar Thompson DET 10.2 6.1 3.9
13 Isaiah Stewart DET 8.9 4.5 1.2
14 Paul Reed DET 8.5 5.2 1.3
15 Tristan da Silva ORL 8.0 3.2 2.0
16 Anthony Black ORL 7.5 3.2 1.7
17 Jamal Cain ORL 7.3 2.7 1.2
18 Ronald Holland II DET 7.2 2.7 1.2
19 Caris LeVert DET 6.5 2.7 1.8
20 Javonte Green DET 6.3 3.1 0.9
21 Goga Bitadze ORL 5.9 6.4 1.2
22 Jevon Carter ORL 4.6 1.3 1.4
23 Jett Howard ORL 4.1 0.9 0.5
24 Marcus Sasser DET 2.8 0.7 1.3
25 Moritz Wagner ORL 2.6 1.6 0.4
26 Jase Richardson ORL 2.6 1.0 0.6
27 Tolu Smith DET 2.1 1.3 0.6
28 Noah Penda ORL 1.6 0.8 0.7
29 Chaz Lanier DET 1.5 0.4 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.