NBA games

BOS @ PHI

NBA Xfinity Mobile Arena ·Final
93–106
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
BOS2326143093
PHI20382424106

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (PHI) / 10 (BOS) games this season
BOS away
home PHI
67% 33%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaylen Brown S 28 18 1 2
Jayson Tatum S 29 17 11 3
Payton Pritchard 36 14 3 5
Derrick White S 32 11 1 1
Luka Garza 14 9 2 1
Sam Hauser S 21 5 4 1
Baylor Scheierman 15 5 3 1
Neemias Queta S 20 4 11 0
Ron Harper Jr. 10 3 3 0
Jordan Walsh 19 3 5 3
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tyrese Maxey S 40 30 2 5
Paul George S 40 23 4 3
Joel Embiid S 34 19 10 8
Kelly Oubre Jr. S 39 14 9 1
VJ Edgecombe S 38 14 8 3
Justin Edwards 10 2 5 0
Andre Drummond 13 2 7 0
Quentin Grimes 22 2 3 2
Trendon Watford 1 0 0 0
Dalen Terry 1 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Joel Embiid · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:46 Q1
"Joel Embiid makes 12-foot two point shot (Paul George assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jaylen Brown BOS
13%
2 Tyrese Maxey PHI
13%
3 Jayson Tatum BOS
12%
4 Joel Embiid PHI
10%
5 VJ Edgecombe PHI
10%
6 Paul George PHI
10%
7 Neemias Queta BOS
9%
8 Derrick White BOS
8%
9 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI
8%
10 Sam Hauser BOS
5%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
6%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
56%
Jumper
24%
Layup
12%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Joel Embiid PHI 26.9 8.0 5.0
2 Jaylen Brown BOS 26.5 5.6 4.3
3 Jayson Tatum BOS 24.4 10.5 7.4
4 Tyrese Maxey PHI 24.2 4.0 5.9
5 Payton Pritchard BOS 16.1 3.4 5.1
6 Paul George PHI 15.9 4.3 3.2
7 VJ Edgecombe PHI 15.7 7.1 4.1
8 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI 11.0 5.3 1.3
9 Neemias Queta BOS 10.6 8.1 1.4
10 Derrick White BOS 10.4 3.5 3.4
11 Quentin Grimes PHI 9.6 3.0 1.7
12 Sam Hauser BOS 8.4 4.0 1.7
13 Luka Garza BOS 8.2 4.0 1.0
14 Andre Drummond PHI 7.6 6.9 1.6
15 Baylor Scheierman BOS 7.5 3.0 1.3
16 Nikola Vucevic BOS 6.5 4.1 2.1
17 Jordan Walsh BOS 4.9 3.0 1.0
18 Trendon Watford PHI 4.7 2.1 1.4
19 Ron Harper Jr. BOS 4.5 1.6 0.9
20 Dominick Barlow PHI 4.0 3.4 0.6
21 Justin Edwards PHI 3.7 1.5 0.6
22 Adem Bona PHI 3.7 2.7 0.5
23 Hugo Gonzalez BOS 3.4 1.9 0.6
24 Dalen Terry PHI 3.1 1.3 1.0
25 Jabari Walker PHI 3.1 1.5 0.6
26 Amari Williams BOS 2.4 1.6 0.6
27 Kyle Lowry PHI 2.3 1.2 0.6
28 Dalano Banton BOS 2.2 1.2 1.1
29 Johni Broome PHI 2.0 1.6 0.5
30 Max Shulga BOS 1.6 0.7 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.