NBA games

LAL @ HOU

NBA Toyota Center (Houston) ·Final
98–78
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
LAL2326222798
HOU1813242378

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (HOU) / 10 (LAL) games this season
LAL away
home HOU
36% 64%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
LeBron James S 37 28 7 8
Rui Hachimura S 35 21 6 2
Austin Reaves S 31 15 3 2
Deandre Ayton S 28 7 16 1
Jake LaRavia 16 7 5 0
Marcus Smart S 35 7 7 1
Jaxson Hayes 17 5 4 1
Nick Smith Jr. 3 3 0 0
Luke Kennard 29 3 3 3
Adou Thiero 3 2 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Amen Thompson S 45 18 8 3
Alperen Sengun S 38 17 11 1
Tari Eason S 37 14 5 2
Reed Sheppard S 36 10 0 1
Jabari Smith Jr. S 42 9 12 3
Jae'Sean Tate 6 3 3 0
Josh Okogie 13 3 4 1
Clint Capela 2 2 1 0
Aaron Holiday 12 2 1 2
JD Davison 2 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Tari Eason · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:43 Q1
"Tari Eason makes 24-foot three point jumper (Reed Sheppard assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Alperen Sengun HOU
15%
2 Amen Thompson HOU
14%
3 LeBron James LAL
11%
4 Rui Hachimura LAL
10%
5 Deandre Ayton LAL
10%
6 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU
10%
7 Tari Eason HOU
9%
8 Luke Kennard LAL
8%
9 Marcus Smart LAL
8%
10 Reed Sheppard HOU
5%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
3%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
30%
Jumper
31%
Layup
31%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 LeBron James LAL 25.6 6.8 8.3
2 Amen Thompson HOU 22.5 6.2 6.0
3 Austin Reaves LAL 22.3 4.3 5.8
4 Alperen Sengun HOU 21.0 9.6 5.9
5 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 17.1 6.3 1.6
6 Rui Hachimura LAL 14.8 4.4 1.6
7 Luke Kennard LAL 14.1 4.0 4.6
8 Deandre Ayton LAL 12.6 7.6 1.2
9 Marcus Smart LAL 12.5 3.2 5.5
10 Reed Sheppard HOU 12.3 2.4 3.7
11 Tari Eason HOU 11.7 5.9 1.7
12 Jaxson Hayes LAL 8.0 3.8 0.9
13 Jake LaRavia LAL 6.5 3.6 1.6
14 Josh Okogie HOU 5.3 3.0 1.2
15 Aaron Holiday HOU 5.0 1.4 0.9
16 Jarred Vanderbilt LAL 4.7 3.4 1.1
17 Bronny James LAL 4.6 0.9 1.2
18 Dorian Finney-Smith HOU 4.4 2.1 1.0
19 Nick Smith Jr. LAL 3.9 0.7 0.6
20 Dalton Knecht LAL 3.1 0.9 0.5
21 Clint Capela HOU 2.6 3.1 0.3
22 JD Davison HOU 2.5 1.5 1.0
23 Jae'Sean Tate HOU 2.5 2.1 0.5
24 Adou Thiero LAL 2.3 0.8 0.4
25 Maxi Kleber LAL 1.7 1.9 0.5
26 Jeff Green HOU 1.6 0.9 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.