NBA games

PHI @ BOS

NBA TD Garden ·Final
113–97
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
PHI21293528113
BOS2334291197

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (BOS) / 10 (PHI) games this season
PHI away
home BOS
33% 67%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Joel Embiid S 39 33 4 8
Tyrese Maxey S 43 25 10 5
Quentin Grimes 24 18 2 0
Paul George S 43 16 9 7
VJ Edgecombe S 40 10 7 3
Andre Drummond 7 5 4 0
Kelly Oubre Jr. S 32 4 6 1
Dominick Barlow 6 2 3 0
Jabari Walker 2 0 0 0
Trendon Watford 2 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jayson Tatum S 41 24 16 4
Jaylen Brown S 41 22 5 5
Payton Pritchard 26 12 2 6
Sam Hauser S 20 8 5 0
Nikola Vucevic 15 8 2 3
Neemias Queta S 26 8 14 1
Derrick White S 36 6 1 3
Luka Garza 6 4 0 1
Baylor Scheierman 9 3 0 0
Jordan Walsh 16 1 3 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Paul George · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:15 Q1
"Paul George makes 26-foot three point jumper (Joel Embiid assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Tyrese Maxey PHI
15%
2 Joel Embiid PHI
12%
3 Jayson Tatum BOS
11%
4 Jaylen Brown BOS
11%
5 VJ Edgecombe PHI
9%
6 Paul George PHI
9%
7 Neemias Queta BOS
9%
8 Derrick White BOS
8%
9 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI
8%
10 Sam Hauser BOS
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
28%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
6%
Jumper
36%
Layup
27%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jaylen Brown BOS 26.7 6.0 5.0
2 Joel Embiid PHI 26.4 8.3 4.9
3 Jayson Tatum BOS 25.1 10.2 8.4
4 Tyrese Maxey PHI 23.8 3.4 5.8
5 VJ Edgecombe PHI 17.2 6.8 4.1
6 Payton Pritchard BOS 16.2 3.5 5.1
7 Paul George PHI 15.5 4.0 2.9
8 Neemias Queta BOS 11.3 7.8 1.7
9 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI 10.9 5.1 1.3
10 Derrick White BOS 10.6 3.9 3.5
11 Sam Hauser BOS 9.9 3.8 1.7
12 Luka Garza BOS 8.2 4.1 1.2
13 Baylor Scheierman BOS 7.9 3.2 1.4
14 Quentin Grimes PHI 7.7 2.9 1.7
15 Andre Drummond PHI 7.6 6.9 1.7
16 Nikola Vucevic BOS 6.5 4.1 1.9
17 Trendon Watford PHI 5.8 2.6 1.7
18 Jordan Walsh BOS 5.3 2.9 0.9
19 Ron Harper Jr. BOS 4.7 1.7 0.9
20 Dominick Barlow PHI 4.5 4.0 0.7
21 Justin Edwards PHI 4.5 1.8 0.8
22 Adem Bona PHI 4.4 2.9 0.7
23 Hugo Gonzalez BOS 3.6 2.2 0.7
24 Dalen Terry PHI 3.4 1.7 1.0
25 Dalano Banton BOS 3.1 1.6 1.4
26 Jabari Walker PHI 3.1 1.7 0.5
27 Max Shulga BOS 2.4 1.1 0.5
28 Johni Broome PHI 2.0 1.6 0.5
29 Amari Williams BOS 1.2 1.1 0.4
30 Kyle Lowry PHI 1.0 0.7 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.