NBA games

HOU @ LAL

NBA crypto.com Arena ·Final
99–93
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
HOU2130252399
LAL2819202693

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (LAL) / 10 (HOU) games this season
HOU away
home LAL
58% 42%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jabari Smith Jr. S 42 22 7 3
Tari Eason S 31 18 5 1
Amen Thompson S 46 15 7 4
Alperen Sengun S 43 14 9 8
Reed Sheppard S 35 12 0 6
Josh Okogie 18 7 3 2
Dorian Finney-Smith 11 6 3 1
Aaron Holiday 13 5 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
LeBron James S 39 25 3 7
Austin Reaves 34 22 4 6
Deandre Ayton S 38 18 17 0
Rui Hachimura S 37 12 4 0
Marcus Smart S 37 11 5 2
Jake LaRavia 9 2 2 1
Jarred Vanderbilt 6 2 2 0
Luke Kennard S 31 1 3 2
Jaxson Hayes 10 0 1 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Marcus Smart · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:37 Q1
"Marcus Smart makes 27-foot three point jumper (LeBron James assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Amen Thompson HOU
12%
2 Alperen Sengun HOU
11%
3 Luke Kennard LAL
11%
4 Rui Hachimura LAL
10%
5 Austin Reaves LAL
10%
6 Deandre Ayton LAL
10%
7 LeBron James LAL
9%
8 Marcus Smart LAL
7%
9 Tari Eason HOU
7%
10 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
10%
Free Throw
16%
Jumper
45%
Layup
28%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 LeBron James LAL 24.9 6.9 8.5
2 Alperen Sengun HOU 22.4 9.9 5.3
3 Amen Thompson HOU 22.1 6.7 6.2
4 Austin Reaves LAL 20.5 3.4 5.2
5 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 16.8 6.4 1.6
6 Luke Kennard LAL 15.3 4.2 4.6
7 Rui Hachimura LAL 14.4 4.1 1.6
8 Marcus Smart LAL 12.6 2.9 5.4
9 Reed Sheppard HOU 12.2 2.6 3.6
10 Tari Eason HOU 11.9 6.0 1.7
11 Deandre Ayton LAL 11.8 6.3 1.2
12 Jaxson Hayes LAL 10.1 4.7 1.0
13 Jake LaRavia LAL 6.6 4.0 1.6
14 Bronny James LAL 5.1 1.1 1.4
15 Jarred Vanderbilt LAL 4.8 3.7 1.3
16 Nick Smith Jr. LAL 4.5 0.9 0.8
17 Josh Okogie HOU 4.4 2.6 1.0
18 Aaron Holiday HOU 4.4 1.4 1.0
19 Dorian Finney-Smith HOU 3.7 2.0 1.0
20 Dalton Knecht LAL 3.6 1.1 0.7
21 JD Davison HOU 3.0 1.8 1.2
22 Jae'Sean Tate HOU 2.9 2.3 0.7
23 Clint Capela HOU 2.8 3.2 0.3
24 Adou Thiero LAL 2.8 1.1 0.6
25 Maxi Kleber LAL 2.2 2.2 0.7
26 Jeff Green HOU 2.1 1.1 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.