NBA games

BOS @ PHI

NBA Xfinity Mobile Arena ·Final
128–96
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
BOS34223933128
PHI1820362296

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (PHI) / 10 (BOS) games this season
BOS away
home PHI
67% 33%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Payton Pritchard 35 32 4 5
Jayson Tatum S 35 30 7 11
Jaylen Brown S 31 20 7 1
Neemias Queta S 17 9 8 1
Sam Hauser S 22 6 4 1
Luka Garza 11 6 3 2
Baylor Scheierman 14 6 5 0
Derrick White S 33 6 6 3
Nikola Vucevic 19 4 5 2
Jordan Walsh 12 3 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Joel Embiid S 34 26 10 6
Tyrese Maxey S 40 22 2 6
Paul George S 31 16 4 1
Quentin Grimes 24 12 2 6
VJ Edgecombe S 36 6 4 1
Adem Bona 4 4 0 0
Trendon Watford 5 4 0 1
Kelly Oubre Jr. S 31 2 4 1
Jabari Walker 4 2 1 0
Andre Drummond 5 2 0 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Neemias Queta · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:40 Q1
"Neemias Queta makes 2-foot dunk (Jayson Tatum assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jaylen Brown BOS
22%
2 Tyrese Maxey PHI
14%
3 Jayson Tatum BOS
9%
4 VJ Edgecombe PHI
8%
5 Paul George PHI
8%
6 Joel Embiid PHI
8%
7 Neemias Queta BOS
7%
8 Derrick White BOS
7%
9 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI
6%
10 Adem Bona PHI
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
7%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
69%
Jumper
6%
Layup
16%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jaylen Brown BOS 29.3 6.0 5.5
2 Joel Embiid PHI 24.9 7.9 4.1
3 Jayson Tatum BOS 24.7 10.6 7.2
4 Tyrese Maxey PHI 24.2 3.8 5.8
5 Paul George PHI 18.4 4.2 3.8
6 VJ Edgecombe PHI 17.4 6.7 4.2
7 Payton Pritchard BOS 15.5 3.4 4.5
8 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI 12.4 5.2 1.5
9 Neemias Queta BOS 11.9 7.9 1.8
10 Derrick White BOS 10.7 3.7 3.6
11 Sam Hauser BOS 9.7 3.8 1.5
12 Luka Garza BOS 8.3 4.2 1.1
13 Andre Drummond PHI 7.9 7.4 1.7
14 Baylor Scheierman BOS 7.8 2.9 1.7
15 Quentin Grimes PHI 7.6 3.0 1.5
16 Nikola Vucevic BOS 7.2 4.2 2.3
17 Trendon Watford PHI 5.2 2.3 1.7
18 Jordan Walsh BOS 5.0 2.9 1.0
19 Adem Bona PHI 4.9 3.3 0.8
20 Dominick Barlow PHI 4.4 3.7 0.6
21 Justin Edwards PHI 4.4 1.6 0.7
22 Ron Harper Jr. BOS 3.5 1.2 0.6
23 Dalen Terry PHI 3.0 1.2 1.2
24 Jabari Walker PHI 2.9 1.3 0.6
25 Hugo Gonzalez BOS 2.5 2.0 0.4
26 Johni Broome PHI 2.1 1.6 0.5
27 Dalano Banton BOS 1.7 0.9 1.1
28 Max Shulga BOS 1.5 0.7 0.3
29 Kyle Lowry PHI 1.2 0.7 0.4
30 Amari Williams BOS 1.2 1.1 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.