NBA games

LAL @ HOU

NBA Toyota Center (Houston) ·Final
96–115
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
LAL2126183196
HOU26303425115

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (HOU) / 10 (LAL) games this season
LAL away
home HOU
30% 70%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Deandre Ayton S 25 19 10 0
Rui Hachimura S 30 13 3 1
LeBron James S 33 10 4 9
Marcus Smart S 31 9 2 5
Dalton Knecht 7 8 3 0
Jarred Vanderbilt 14 8 4 0
Luke Kennard S 32 7 3 2
Jake LaRavia 16 6 3 0
Bronny James 15 5 2 4
Nick Smith Jr. 7 5 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Amen Thompson S 41 23 4 7
Tari Eason S 30 20 8 2
Alperen Sengun S 33 19 6 2
Reed Sheppard S 29 17 1 3
Jabari Smith Jr. S 42 16 8 3
Aaron Holiday 19 9 0 1
Josh Okogie 19 5 4 1
Dorian Finney-Smith 19 2 1 0
Jae'Sean Tate 3 2 1 0
JD Davison 3 2 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Rui Hachimura · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:39 Q1
"Rui Hachimura makes 18-foot pullup jump shot (LeBron James assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Alperen Sengun HOU
14%
2 Amen Thompson HOU
12%
3 LeBron James LAL
10%
4 Austin Reaves LAL
10%
5 Deandre Ayton LAL
9%
6 Rui Hachimura LAL
9%
7 Marcus Smart LAL
8%
8 Tari Eason HOU
7%
9 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU
7%
10 Luke Kennard LAL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
9%
Dunk
9%
Free Throw
23%
Jumper
22%
Layup
37%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 LeBron James LAL 25.3 7.6 8.3
2 Alperen Sengun HOU 22.1 9.2 6.2
3 Amen Thompson HOU 21.6 6.5 6.2
4 Austin Reaves LAL 20.4 3.5 5.1
5 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 17.2 6.2 1.6
6 Rui Hachimura LAL 14.2 4.0 1.5
7 Luke Kennard LAL 13.9 3.9 4.5
8 Marcus Smart LAL 13.2 2.9 5.2
9 Reed Sheppard HOU 13.1 3.0 4.0
10 Deandre Ayton LAL 11.6 6.4 1.1
11 Jaxson Hayes LAL 10.9 5.1 1.0
12 Tari Eason HOU 10.3 5.6 1.5
13 Jake LaRavia LAL 7.4 4.4 1.6
14 Josh Okogie HOU 5.0 2.6 1.0
15 Bronny James LAL 4.9 1.2 1.1
16 Jarred Vanderbilt LAL 4.8 4.2 1.3
17 Aaron Holiday HOU 4.7 1.7 1.0
18 Dorian Finney-Smith HOU 4.3 2.3 1.2
19 Clint Capela HOU 3.7 3.7 0.6
20 Jae'Sean Tate HOU 3.4 2.5 0.8
21 Nick Smith Jr. LAL 3.2 0.6 0.5
22 Jeff Green HOU 2.7 1.4 0.6
23 JD Davison HOU 2.2 1.5 0.9
24 Dalton Knecht LAL 2.2 0.8 0.4
25 Adou Thiero LAL 1.8 0.7 0.3
26 Maxi Kleber LAL 1.4 1.9 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.