NBA games

BOS @ PHI

NBA Xfinity Mobile Arena ·Final
108–100
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
BOS29252529108
PHI24232726100

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (PHI) / 10 (BOS) games this season
BOS away
home PHI
62% 38%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaylen Brown S 40 25 7 4
Jayson Tatum S 42 25 5 7
Payton Pritchard 33 15 4 2
Derrick White S 34 11 4 2
Nikola Vucevic 31 11 6 4
Neemias Queta S 13 6 7 0
Sam Hauser S 18 6 3 0
Baylor Scheierman 12 6 3 1
Luka Garza 4 3 2 1
Jordan Walsh 13 0 4 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tyrese Maxey S 42 31 4 6
Paul George S 41 18 0 5
Kelly Oubre Jr. S 40 17 6 1
Andre Drummond 26 12 6 0
Adem Bona S 22 10 5 0
VJ Edgecombe S 41 10 10 5
Quentin Grimes 15 2 4 1
Justin Edwards 13 0 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jaylen Brown · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:22 Q1
"Jaylen Brown makes 5-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jaylen Brown BOS
15%
2 Jayson Tatum BOS
12%
3 Tyrese Maxey PHI
12%
4 Paul George PHI
10%
5 VJ Edgecombe PHI
10%
6 Neemias Queta BOS
9%
7 Derrick White BOS
8%
8 Adem Bona PHI
8%
9 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI
7%
10 Sam Hauser BOS
5%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
4%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
70%
Jumper
9%
Layup
16%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jaylen Brown BOS 29.4 6.0 5.5
2 Jayson Tatum BOS 24.7 10.7 7.4
3 Tyrese Maxey PHI 23.9 3.6 6.0
4 Paul George PHI 19.2 4.5 3.8
5 VJ Edgecombe PHI 19.1 6.1 4.9
6 Payton Pritchard BOS 16.4 3.5 4.9
7 Neemias Queta BOS 12.3 8.1 2.0
8 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI 11.8 4.7 1.5
9 Derrick White BOS 10.4 3.5 3.8
10 Sam Hauser BOS 10.2 3.7 1.5
11 Quentin Grimes PHI 9.0 3.0 1.5
12 Luka Garza BOS 8.2 4.2 1.0
13 Baylor Scheierman BOS 7.5 2.8 1.7
14 Andre Drummond PHI 6.9 7.6 2.0
15 Nikola Vucevic BOS 6.4 4.5 1.9
16 Trendon Watford PHI 5.5 2.4 1.8
17 Jordan Walsh BOS 5.3 2.8 1.0
18 Dominick Barlow PHI 4.8 4.0 0.8
19 Adem Bona PHI 4.3 2.9 0.6
20 Justin Edwards PHI 4.1 1.4 0.6
21 Ron Harper Jr. BOS 3.9 1.5 0.8
22 Dalen Terry PHI 3.3 1.2 1.2
23 Jabari Walker PHI 3.1 1.3 0.6
24 Hugo Gonzalez BOS 2.8 2.1 0.4
25 Johni Broome PHI 2.1 1.6 0.6
26 Max Shulga BOS 1.9 1.0 0.4
27 Dalano Banton BOS 1.8 0.8 1.1
28 Kyle Lowry PHI 1.2 0.7 0.4
29 Amari Williams BOS 1.2 1.1 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.