NBA games

DEN @ MIN

NBA Target Center ·Final
98–110
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DEN3020242498
MIN29282528110

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIN) / 10 (DEN) games this season
DEN away
home MIN
56% 44%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Nikola Jokic S 43 28 9 10
Cameron Johnson S 39 27 8 3
Tim Hardaway Jr. 21 13 4 2
Jamal Murray S 40 12 6 4
Spencer Jones S 35 8 2 1
Tyus Jones 12 4 0 3
Christian Braun S 28 3 1 0
Jonas Valanciunas 4 2 2 0
Bruce Brown 14 1 1 1
Zeke Nnaji 3 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaden McDaniels S 45 32 10 3
Terrence Shannon Jr. S 35 24 6 1
Julius Randle S 37 18 4 5
Naz Reid 34 15 7 4
Rudy Gobert S 42 10 13 8
Mike Conley S 26 7 6 3
Jaylen Clark 12 3 2 1
Bones Hyland 9 1 2 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Nikola Jokic · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:17 Q1
"Nikola Jokic makes 6-foot floating jump shot (Jamal Murray assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jaden McDaniels MIN
14%
2 Julius Randle MIN
14%
3 Nikola Jokic DEN
13%
4 Jamal Murray DEN
11%
5 Rudy Gobert MIN
10%
6 Cameron Johnson DEN
9%
7 Ayo Dosunmu MIN
9%
8 Christian Braun DEN
8%
9 Spencer Jones DEN
7%
10 Mike Conley MIN
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
8%
Dunk
9%
Free Throw
16%
Jumper
38%
Layup
28%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Nikola Jokic DEN 28.0 12.6 9.4
2 Jamal Murray DEN 25.3 4.5 6.4
3 Julius Randle MIN 23.6 6.6 4.5
4 Ayo Dosunmu MIN 21.1 4.0 4.1
5 Jaden McDaniels MIN 18.1 6.0 2.7
6 Cameron Johnson DEN 13.4 4.0 3.0
7 Naz Reid MIN 12.5 6.2 1.8
8 Christian Braun DEN 12.2 4.4 1.8
9 Bones Hyland MIN 10.5 2.8 3.0
10 Terrence Shannon Jr. MIN 9.8 1.9 1.4
11 Rudy Gobert MIN 9.6 10.2 1.9
12 Bruce Brown DEN 9.1 3.8 2.6
13 Tim Hardaway Jr. DEN 9.0 2.9 1.2
14 Jonas Valanciunas DEN 8.4 4.7 1.1
15 Julian Strawther DEN 8.2 2.3 1.4
16 Jaylen Clark MIN 5.7 2.1 1.2
17 Mike Conley MIN 5.6 1.4 2.1
18 Spencer Jones DEN 5.5 2.8 0.7
19 Joan Beringer MIN 5.1 3.7 0.6
20 Joe Ingles MIN 3.8 1.6 1.7
21 Julian Phillips MIN 3.7 1.3 0.7
22 Tyus Jones DEN 3.5 1.4 1.0
23 Jalen Pickett DEN 3.0 0.8 1.0
24 Zeke Nnaji DEN 2.9 1.9 0.6
25 DaRon Holmes II DEN 2.2 0.9 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.