NBA games

MIN @ DEN

NBA Ball Arena ·Final
113–125
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIN29222438113
DEN34263728125

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DEN) / 10 (MIN) games this season
MIN away
home DEN
44% 56%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Julius Randle S 32 27 9 6
Ayo Dosunmu S 38 18 3 4
Terrence Shannon Jr. 14 15 1 0
Bones Hyland 23 15 1 1
Jaden McDaniels S 27 13 3 1
Naz Reid 24 12 8 1
Mike Conley S 17 4 1 4
Kyle Anderson 15 4 3 6
Rudy Gobert S 29 3 7 2
Joan Beringer 3 2 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Nikola Jokic S 38 27 12 16
Jamal Murray S 39 24 4 7
Spencer Jones S 37 20 3 1
Cameron Johnson S 36 18 6 5
Christian Braun S 31 9 2 3
Jonas Valanciunas 10 9 2 1
Tim Hardaway Jr. 12 8 0 0
Bruce Brown 20 7 0 0
Tyus Jones 14 3 0 2
Julian Strawther 4 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Julius Randle · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:33 Q1
"Julius Randle makes 28-foot three point jumper (Jaden McDaniels assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jaden McDaniels MIN
15%
2 Nikola Jokic DEN
15%
3 Julius Randle MIN
14%
4 Rudy Gobert MIN
13%
5 Jamal Murray DEN
12%
6 Cameron Johnson DEN
11%
7 Christian Braun DEN
10%
8 Jaylen Clark MIN
9%
9 Bones Hyland MIN
0%
10 Mike Conley MIN
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
12%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
12%
Jumper
37%
Layup
33%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Nikola Jokic DEN 27.8 13.1 8.7
2 Jamal Murray DEN 26.1 4.8 6.8
3 Julius Randle MIN 21.9 6.6 4.4
4 Ayo Dosunmu MIN 21.1 4.7 4.5
5 Jaden McDaniels MIN 18.6 5.8 2.8
6 Cameron Johnson DEN 13.1 3.7 2.5
7 Naz Reid MIN 12.2 6.0 1.8
8 Christian Braun DEN 11.9 4.5 1.8
9 Rudy Gobert MIN 10.4 10.1 1.7
10 Bones Hyland MIN 10.3 3.0 2.9
11 Tim Hardaway Jr. DEN 9.6 3.1 1.4
12 Bruce Brown DEN 9.6 4.3 2.6
13 Terrence Shannon Jr. MIN 9.4 2.0 1.7
14 Julian Strawther DEN 7.5 2.5 1.2
15 Jonas Valanciunas DEN 6.7 4.9 0.7
16 Mike Conley MIN 5.7 1.4 2.3
17 Kyle Anderson MIN 4.7 2.9 2.4
18 Spencer Jones DEN 4.2 2.7 0.8
19 Joan Beringer MIN 4.2 3.8 0.4
20 Jaylen Clark MIN 4.1 1.5 0.9
21 Jalen Pickett DEN 3.2 0.9 1.0
22 Zeke Nnaji DEN 3.1 2.1 0.7
23 Julian Phillips MIN 2.9 0.9 0.5
24 Joe Ingles MIN 2.9 1.4 1.5
25 Zyon Pullin MIN 2.8 0.7 1.5
26 Tyus Jones DEN 2.6 1.1 0.8
27 DaRon Holmes II DEN 2.5 1.1 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.