NBA games

LAL @ HOU

NBA Toyota Center (Houston) ·Final
112–108
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4Q5T
LAL3924172111112
HOU322023267108

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (HOU) / 10 (LAL) games this season
LAL away
home HOU
27% 73%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
LeBron James S 45 29 13 6
Rui Hachimura S 44 22 4 2
Marcus Smart S 39 21 4 10
Luke Kennard S 45 14 6 6
Jaxson Hayes 20 12 4 0
Jarred Vanderbilt 15 5 6 1
Bronny James 9 5 0 0
Deandre Ayton S 33 2 6 2
Jake LaRavia 15 2 2 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Alperen Sengun S 47 33 16 6
Amen Thompson S 48 26 11 4
Jabari Smith Jr. S 44 24 6 1
Reed Sheppard S 46 17 4 7
Tari Eason S 46 5 4 2
Clint Capela 4 2 2 1
Jae'Sean Tate 3 1 1 0
Aaron Holiday 6 0 0 0
Jeff Green 8 0 0 0
Dorian Finney-Smith 11 0 4 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Rui Hachimura · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:45 Q1
"Rui Hachimura makes 23-foot three point jumper (LeBron James assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Amen Thompson HOU
11%
2 Alperen Sengun HOU
11%
3 LeBron James LAL
10%
4 Austin Reaves LAL
10%
5 Rui Hachimura LAL
9%
6 Deandre Ayton LAL
9%
7 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU
8%
8 Kevin Durant HOU
8%
9 Marcus Smart LAL
8%
10 Luke Kennard LAL
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
9%
Free Throw
29%
Jumper
29%
Layup
31%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Kevin Durant HOU 26.4 6.1 6.4
2 LeBron James LAL 23.3 6.9 8.3
3 Alperen Sengun HOU 22.0 9.0 6.3
4 Amen Thompson HOU 21.3 7.0 6.3
5 Austin Reaves LAL 20.3 3.5 5.0
6 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 17.2 6.1 1.9
7 Luke Kennard LAL 14.4 3.8 4.1
8 Rui Hachimura LAL 13.4 4.2 1.3
9 Deandre Ayton LAL 12.3 6.3 1.1
10 Reed Sheppard HOU 12.3 3.0 3.4
11 Marcus Smart LAL 11.6 2.6 4.4
12 Tari Eason HOU 11.5 6.0 1.7
13 Jaxson Hayes LAL 10.2 5.4 1.0
14 Jake LaRavia LAL 7.7 4.6 1.7
15 Bronny James LAL 5.2 1.2 1.2
16 Josh Okogie HOU 5.0 2.5 1.2
17 Aaron Holiday HOU 4.7 1.7 1.0
18 Jarred Vanderbilt LAL 4.3 3.8 1.3
19 Dorian Finney-Smith HOU 3.6 1.6 1.1
20 Clint Capela HOU 3.5 3.6 0.6
21 Jae'Sean Tate HOU 3.4 2.6 0.8
22 Nick Smith Jr. LAL 3.3 0.6 0.5
23 Dalton Knecht LAL 2.3 0.8 0.4
24 JD Davison HOU 2.2 1.5 1.0
25 Adou Thiero LAL 1.9 0.7 0.3
26 Jeff Green HOU 1.7 1.1 0.4
27 Maxi Kleber LAL 1.5 1.9 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.