NBA games

DEN @ MIN

NBA Target Center ·Final
96–112
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DEN2331241896
MIN22283230112

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIN) / 10 (DEN) games this season
DEN away
home MIN
58% 42%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jamal Murray S 42 30 5 5
Nikola Jokic S 41 24 15 9
Tim Hardaway Jr. 28 10 5 2
Cameron Johnson S 27 9 2 2
Aaron Gordon S 23 9 1 0
Christian Braun S 34 8 5 1
Bruce Brown 21 6 1 2
Spencer Jones 25 0 4 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Ayo Dosunmu 42 43 4 1
Naz Reid 28 17 9 2
Julius Randle S 32 15 9 2
Jaden McDaniels S 33 12 8 3
Bones Hyland 20 8 1 7
Mike Conley 21 5 1 4
Anthony Edwards S 18 5 3 0
Rudy Gobert S 36 4 15 2
Terrence Shannon Jr. 7 3 0 0
Donte DiVincenzo S 1 0 0 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Julius Randle · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:43 Q1
"Julius Randle makes 10-foot step back jumpshot (Jaden McDaniels assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Anthony Edwards MIN
10%
2 Jamal Murray DEN
10%
3 Jaden McDaniels MIN
10%
4 Nikola Jokic DEN
9%
5 Rudy Gobert MIN
8%
6 Aaron Gordon DEN
8%
7 Julius Randle MIN
8%
8 Cameron Johnson DEN
6%
9 Christian Braun DEN
6%
10 Terrence Shannon Jr. MIN
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
14%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
21%
Jumper
42%
Layup
18%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Nikola Jokic DEN 27.6 13.3 8.9
2 Jamal Murray DEN 27.0 4.9 6.6
3 Anthony Edwards MIN 23.6 5.2 4.8
4 Julius Randle MIN 22.9 6.4 4.9
5 Ayo Dosunmu MIN 19.6 5.1 5.3
6 Jaden McDaniels MIN 18.7 5.4 2.9
7 Aaron Gordon DEN 13.9 5.5 3.2
8 Cameron Johnson DEN 13.2 3.8 2.6
9 Christian Braun DEN 12.4 4.4 1.8
10 Naz Reid MIN 11.6 5.6 1.7
11 Donte DiVincenzo MIN 11.3 3.1 3.2
12 Rudy Gobert MIN 11.1 10.2 1.6
13 Tim Hardaway Jr. DEN 10.7 2.9 1.3
14 Bruce Brown DEN 10.5 4.3 2.3
15 Bones Hyland MIN 10.2 3.1 2.3
16 Julian Strawther DEN 8.3 2.7 1.4
17 Terrence Shannon Jr. MIN 7.4 1.4 1.3
18 Jonas Valanciunas DEN 7.1 5.1 0.8
19 Mike Conley MIN 6.0 1.9 2.5
20 Kyle Anderson MIN 5.2 3.4 2.9
21 Joan Beringer MIN 5.2 4.3 0.6
22 Spencer Jones DEN 4.8 2.8 0.7
23 Jalen Pickett DEN 4.3 1.4 1.2
24 Zeke Nnaji DEN 4.2 2.6 0.8
25 Jaylen Clark MIN 4.1 1.5 0.9
26 Joe Ingles MIN 3.9 1.9 1.8
27 Julian Phillips MIN 3.8 1.5 0.7
28 Tyus Jones DEN 3.6 1.6 1.0
29 DaRon Holmes II DEN 3.5 1.6 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.