NBA games

DEN @ MIN

NBA Target Center ·Final
96–113
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DEN1128292896
MIN25362725113

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIN) / 10 (DEN) games this season
DEN away
home MIN
63% 37%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Nikola Jokic S 35 27 15 3
Jamal Murray S 35 16 3 4
Tim Hardaway Jr. 28 11 5 0
Zeke Nnaji 16 10 3 1
Bruce Brown 23 9 4 2
Spencer Jones S 28 6 1 0
Julian Strawther 14 6 3 0
Cameron Johnson S 24 6 2 1
Tyus Jones 4 2 0 0
Christian Braun S 24 2 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Ayo Dosunmu 32 25 3 9
Jaden McDaniels S 41 20 10 3
Anthony Edwards S 24 17 5 3
Julius Randle S 33 15 6 4
Donte DiVincenzo S 33 15 4 7
Rudy Gobert S 36 10 12 3
Bones Hyland 15 6 4 0
Naz Reid 18 5 6 2
Julian Phillips 1 0 1 0
Joan Beringer 1 0 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jaden McDaniels · Dunk (2 pts) · 10:30 Q1
"Jaden McDaniels makes 1-foot dunk (Donte DiVincenzo assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Anthony Edwards MIN
10%
2 Julius Randle MIN
9%
3 Jaden McDaniels MIN
8%
4 Cameron Johnson DEN
8%
5 Rudy Gobert MIN
8%
6 Joan Beringer MIN
7%
7 Nikola Jokic DEN
7%
8 Joe Ingles MIN
7%
9 Donte DiVincenzo MIN
6%
10 Christian Braun DEN
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
15%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
11%
Jumper
56%
Layup
15%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Nikola Jokic DEN 30.0 13.1 10.7
2 Jamal Murray DEN 25.9 4.8 7.2
3 Anthony Edwards MIN 24.2 4.8 4.6
4 Julius Randle MIN 22.6 6.6 5.0
5 Ayo Dosunmu MIN 17.6 5.6 5.2
6 Jaden McDaniels MIN 16.5 4.8 2.6
7 Cameron Johnson DEN 14.3 3.9 2.7
8 Christian Braun DEN 13.5 4.6 2.1
9 Naz Reid MIN 12.7 6.1 1.7
10 Donte DiVincenzo MIN 11.2 3.0 2.7
11 Rudy Gobert MIN 11.0 10.3 1.5
12 Bones Hyland MIN 10.9 2.8 3.3
13 Bruce Brown DEN 9.8 4.1 2.3
14 Tim Hardaway Jr. DEN 9.7 2.6 1.4
15 Jonas Valanciunas DEN 7.9 5.3 1.0
16 Julian Strawther DEN 7.0 2.1 1.1
17 Mike Conley MIN 6.0 1.8 3.0
18 Kyle Anderson MIN 5.7 3.4 2.9
19 Spencer Jones DEN 4.6 3.0 0.8
20 Joan Beringer MIN 3.8 3.2 0.4
21 Jalen Pickett DEN 3.3 0.7 1.0
22 Julian Phillips MIN 2.7 0.7 0.4
23 Joe Ingles MIN 2.7 1.1 1.5
24 DaRon Holmes II DEN 2.5 0.9 0.4
25 Tyus Jones DEN 2.4 1.0 0.9
26 Zeke Nnaji DEN 2.1 1.7 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.