NBA games

HOU @ LAL

NBA crypto.com Arena ·Final
94–101
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
HOU2625172694
LAL33212126101

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (LAL) / 10 (HOU) games this season
HOU away
home LAL
62% 38%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kevin Durant S 41 23 6 4
Alperen Sengun S 35 20 11 5
Jabari Smith Jr. S 39 18 6 1
Amen Thompson S 42 16 5 9
Tari Eason 27 10 8 1
Josh Okogie S 24 7 2 0
Jae'Sean Tate 9 0 1 0
Aaron Holiday 7 0 1 0
Clint Capela 5 0 2 0
Reed Sheppard 11 0 0 3
Player MIN PTS REB AST
LeBron James S 39 28 8 7
Marcus Smart S 35 25 2 7
Luke Kennard S 42 23 6 2
Rui Hachimura S 43 13 5 2
Jaxson Hayes 21 6 4 1
Deandre Ayton S 27 6 5 1
Jarred Vanderbilt 14 0 5 1
Jake LaRavia 16 0 2 0
Bronny James 3 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jabari Smith Jr. · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:24 Q1
"Jabari Smith Jr. makes 23-foot three point jumper (Alperen Sengun assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Amen Thompson HOU
12%
2 Alperen Sengun HOU
12%
3 Deandre Ayton LAL
11%
4 Kevin Durant HOU
10%
5 LeBron James LAL
10%
6 Rui Hachimura LAL
9%
7 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU
8%
8 Marcus Smart LAL
8%
9 Josh Okogie HOU
7%
10 Luke Kennard LAL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
22%
Jumper
40%
Layup
29%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Kevin Durant HOU 24.2 5.4 6.3
2 LeBron James LAL 23.5 7.1 8.9
3 Amen Thompson HOU 21.2 7.1 5.8
4 Alperen Sengun HOU 20.5 8.4 6.2
5 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 16.9 6.8 2.1
6 Reed Sheppard HOU 13.6 3.2 3.3
7 Rui Hachimura LAL 12.9 4.0 1.2
8 Deandre Ayton LAL 12.6 6.5 1.1
9 Luke Kennard LAL 12.5 3.6 3.8
10 Tari Eason HOU 11.0 5.9 1.5
11 Jaxson Hayes LAL 10.1 5.3 1.0
12 Marcus Smart LAL 9.8 2.5 3.9
13 Jake LaRavia LAL 7.7 4.6 1.7
14 Bronny James LAL 5.1 1.1 1.2
15 Aaron Holiday HOU 4.8 1.5 1.0
16 Jarred Vanderbilt LAL 4.2 3.3 1.2
17 Josh Okogie HOU 3.9 2.2 1.2
18 Clint Capela HOU 3.6 4.6 0.7
19 Dorian Finney-Smith HOU 3.5 1.6 1.0
20 Nick Smith Jr. LAL 3.4 0.6 0.6
21 Jae'Sean Tate HOU 3.1 2.4 0.7
22 Dalton Knecht LAL 2.4 0.8 0.5
23 JD Davison HOU 2.2 1.5 0.9
24 Adou Thiero LAL 2.0 0.7 0.4
25 Jeff Green HOU 1.7 1.1 0.4
26 Maxi Kleber LAL 1.5 2.0 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.