NBA games

PHI @ BOS

NBA TD Garden ·Final
111–97
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
PHI25372227111
BOS2826232097

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (BOS) / 10 (PHI) games this season
PHI away
home BOS
26% 74%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
VJ Edgecombe S 35 30 10 2
Tyrese Maxey S 40 29 4 9
Paul George S 35 19 4 3
Kelly Oubre Jr. S 32 12 5 0
Andre Drummond 26 10 8 2
Quentin Grimes 21 6 3 1
Justin Edwards 22 5 4 1
Adem Bona S 22 0 3 0
Dominick Barlow 7 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaylen Brown S 38 36 7 4
Jayson Tatum S 39 19 14 9
Nikola Vucevic 18 9 5 1
Neemias Queta S 28 8 6 0
Derrick White S 39 8 2 3
Sam Hauser S 25 6 4 1
Baylor Scheierman 11 5 1 0
Payton Pritchard 27 4 5 5
Luka Garza 2 2 3 0
Ron Harper Jr. 2 0 0 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jayson Tatum · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:37 Q1
"Jayson Tatum makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jaylen Brown assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jaylen Brown BOS
17%
2 Jayson Tatum BOS
12%
3 Tyrese Maxey PHI
11%
4 VJ Edgecombe PHI
9%
5 Neemias Queta BOS
8%
6 Paul George PHI
8%
7 Adem Bona PHI
7%
8 Derrick White BOS
7%
9 Max Shulga BOS
7%
10 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
8%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
54%
Jumper
12%
Layup
24%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jaylen Brown BOS 29.1 6.0 5.5
2 Jayson Tatum BOS 24.9 10.4 6.7
3 Tyrese Maxey PHI 24.4 3.8 6.1
4 Payton Pritchard BOS 20.3 3.8 5.0
5 Paul George PHI 19.0 4.5 3.7
6 VJ Edgecombe PHI 16.7 5.5 5.1
7 Neemias Queta BOS 13.1 8.2 2.3
8 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI 12.0 5.6 1.6
9 Derrick White BOS 11.0 3.5 4.3
10 Sam Hauser BOS 10.9 3.7 1.7
11 Baylor Scheierman BOS 9.5 3.1 2.1
12 Quentin Grimes PHI 9.4 3.3 1.7
13 Luka Garza BOS 9.1 4.6 1.3
14 Nikola Vucevic BOS 9.0 5.5 2.3
15 Trendon Watford PHI 6.4 2.7 2.0
16 Andre Drummond PHI 6.3 7.0 1.7
17 Jordan Walsh BOS 6.1 3.4 1.3
18 Dominick Barlow PHI 5.5 4.5 0.8
19 Ron Harper Jr. BOS 5.0 1.7 0.9
20 Justin Edwards PHI 5.0 1.3 0.6
21 Adem Bona PHI 4.5 2.8 0.6
22 Dalen Terry PHI 4.2 1.7 1.4
23 Jabari Walker PHI 4.0 1.8 0.8
24 Hugo Gonzalez BOS 3.7 2.5 0.7
25 Johni Broome PHI 2.1 1.6 0.5
26 Dalano Banton BOS 1.9 1.1 1.2
27 Amari Williams BOS 1.3 1.2 0.4
28 Max Shulga BOS 1.3 0.8 0.4
29 Kyle Lowry PHI 1.2 0.8 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.