NBA games

MIN @ DEN

NBA Ball Arena ·Final
119–114
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIN25392629119
DEN39252921114

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DEN) / 10 (MIN) games this season
MIN away
home DEN
25% 75%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Edwards S 40 30 10 2
Julius Randle S 36 24 9 6
Donte DiVincenzo S 31 16 7 6
Jaden McDaniels S 37 14 2 3
Bones Hyland 10 13 0 2
Naz Reid 27 11 9 1
Ayo Dosunmu 22 9 4 5
Rudy Gobert S 28 2 7 1
Kyle Anderson 5 0 1 2
Mike Conley 4 0 0 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jamal Murray S 43 30 7 7
Nikola Jokic S 40 24 15 8
Christian Braun S 35 16 3 5
Tim Hardaway Jr. 27 16 3 0
Cameron Johnson S 28 13 1 2
Aaron Gordon S 37 8 7 4
Bruce Brown 16 7 3 2
Spencer Jones 10 0 2 0
Jonas Valanciunas 3 0 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jamal Murray · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:36 Q1
"Jamal Murray makes 25-foot three point jumper (Nikola Jokic assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Julius Randle MIN
8%
2 Anthony Edwards MIN
8%
3 Jaden McDaniels MIN
7%
4 Rudy Gobert MIN
7%
5 Aaron Gordon DEN
7%
6 Nikola Jokic DEN
6%
7 Joan Beringer MIN
6%
8 Cameron Johnson DEN
6%
9 Joe Ingles MIN
6%
10 Christian Braun DEN
5%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
12%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
14%
Jumper
30%
Layup
40%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Nikola Jokic DEN 31.4 12.3 10.7
2 Jamal Murray DEN 25.7 4.5 7.2
3 Anthony Edwards MIN 24.2 4.4 4.7
4 Julius Randle MIN 22.2 6.0 4.7
5 Ayo Dosunmu MIN 19.6 5.9 5.3
6 Jaden McDaniels MIN 16.4 4.7 2.5
7 Aaron Gordon DEN 15.2 5.3 3.2
8 Cameron Johnson DEN 14.8 4.0 2.9
9 Christian Braun DEN 13.4 4.7 2.1
10 Naz Reid MIN 12.6 6.1 1.6
11 Rudy Gobert MIN 12.3 11.1 1.5
12 Bones Hyland MIN 11.9 3.1 3.3
13 Donte DiVincenzo MIN 10.9 2.8 2.3
14 Tim Hardaway Jr. DEN 10.6 2.6 1.6
15 Bruce Brown DEN 9.7 4.0 2.3
16 Jonas Valanciunas DEN 8.7 5.9 1.2
17 Terrence Shannon Jr. MIN 7.7 1.5 1.4
18 Julian Strawther DEN 7.4 2.2 1.2
19 Mike Conley MIN 5.9 1.8 2.6
20 Kyle Anderson MIN 5.8 3.6 3.0
21 Spencer Jones DEN 5.0 3.2 0.9
22 Jaylen Clark MIN 4.4 1.5 0.9
23 Joan Beringer MIN 3.9 3.4 0.3
24 Jalen Pickett DEN 3.5 0.8 1.1
25 Julian Phillips MIN 2.8 0.7 0.4
26 Joe Ingles MIN 2.8 1.2 1.5
27 Tyus Jones DEN 2.6 1.1 1.0
28 DaRon Holmes II DEN 2.6 1.0 0.5
29 Zeke Nnaji DEN 2.3 1.9 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.