NBA games

NY @ ATL

NBA State Farm Arena ·Final
140–89
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
NY40433423140
ATL1521282589

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (ATL) / 10 (NY) games this season
NY away
home ATL
74% 26%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
OG Anunoby S 27 29 7 2
Mikal Bridges S 27 24 5 3
Jalen Brunson S 29 17 2 8
Josh Hart S 27 14 5 2
Karl-Anthony Towns S 28 12 11 10
Jordan Clarkson 11 7 0 1
Tyler Kolek 12 6 1 3
Mitchell Robinson 9 6 3 0
Pacome Dadiet 8 5 1 0
Landry Shamet 15 5 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Johnson S 32 21 8 6
Jonathan Kuminga 23 11 2 3
Nickeil Alexander-Walker S 29 11 1 2
CJ McCollum S 24 11 3 0
Zaccharie Risacher 16 8 3 0
Tony Bradley 8 5 3 1
Buddy Hield 9 5 2 0
Keaton Wallace 10 4 3 2
Onyeka Okongwu S 32 4 6 5
Corey Kispert 15 4 2 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jalen Brunson · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:41 Q1
"Jalen Brunson makes 25-foot three point jumper (Karl-Anthony Towns assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Brunson NY
13%
2 Jalen Johnson ATL
12%
3 CJ McCollum ATL
12%
4 Karl-Anthony Towns NY
10%
5 OG Anunoby NY
10%
6 Dyson Daniels ATL
9%
7 Onyeka Okongwu ATL
8%
8 Josh Hart NY
8%
9 Mikal Bridges NY
8%
10 Nickeil Alexander-Walker ATL
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
14%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
14%
Jumper
57%
Layup
12%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jalen Brunson NY 26.4 3.3 7.2
2 Karl-Anthony Towns NY 22.4 10.5 5.7
3 CJ McCollum ATL 21.2 3.9 3.9
4 Jalen Johnson ATL 19.8 8.8 5.3
5 OG Anunoby NY 18.9 7.5 1.8
6 Nickeil Alexander-Walker ATL 18.2 3.5 2.8
7 Jonathan Kuminga ATL 13.2 4.0 1.5
8 Onyeka Okongwu ATL 13.1 6.3 2.0
9 Mikal Bridges NY 11.5 2.7 1.9
10 Dyson Daniels ATL 11.4 7.5 5.5
11 Josh Hart NY 11.0 7.3 3.9
12 Jose Alvarado NY 8.7 2.7 2.6
13 Miles McBride NY 6.8 2.0 1.4
14 Mitchell Robinson NY 6.7 7.0 0.6
15 Jordan Clarkson NY 6.0 2.3 1.0
16 Corey Kispert ATL 5.2 1.6 0.9
17 Gabe Vincent ATL 5.1 1.4 1.3
18 Buddy Hield ATL 5.0 1.6 1.1
19 Landry Shamet NY 5.0 1.5 0.9
20 Jeremy Sochan NY 4.6 2.6 0.9
21 Tony Bradley ATL 4.3 3.5 0.8
22 Zaccharie Risacher ATL 4.1 2.6 0.5
23 Tyler Kolek NY 3.9 1.5 1.6
24 Pacome Dadiet NY 3.9 1.7 0.6
25 Ariel Hukporti NY 3.7 3.6 0.7
26 Asa Newell ATL 3.7 2.0 0.7
27 Keaton Wallace ATL 3.5 1.3 1.1
28 Mohamed Diawara NY 3.2 0.9 0.8
29 Mouhamed Gueye ATL 3.1 2.3 0.8

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.