NBA games

ATL @ NY

NBA Madison Square Garden ·Final
97–126
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ATL2226242597
NY35292636126

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NY) / 10 (ATL) games this season
ATL away
home NY
25% 75%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Johnson S 35 18 10 6
Dyson Daniels S 25 17 2 5
Onyeka Okongwu S 34 16 5 4
Nickeil Alexander-Walker S 34 16 0 3
Jonathan Kuminga 17 13 4 1
CJ McCollum S 32 6 3 1
Gabe Vincent 24 6 0 1
Buddy Hield 4 5 0 0
Keaton Wallace 2 0 0 1
Tony Bradley 13 0 2 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Brunson S 35 39 3 8
OG Anunoby S 35 17 10 1
Karl-Anthony Towns S 34 16 14 6
Jose Alvarado 12 12 2 1
Jeremy Sochan 3 10 1 0
Josh Hart S 30 9 5 4
Jordan Clarkson 16 9 0 1
Mitchell Robinson 16 7 6 0
Mikal Bridges S 27 7 1 1
Pacome Dadiet 1 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Dyson Daniels · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:22 Q1
"Dyson Daniels makes 3-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 CJ McCollum ATL
15%
2 Jalen Brunson NY
13%
3 Jalen Johnson ATL
11%
4 Onyeka Okongwu ATL
11%
5 Karl-Anthony Towns NY
10%
6 OG Anunoby NY
8%
7 Nickeil Alexander-Walker ATL
8%
8 Dyson Daniels ATL
8%
9 Josh Hart NY
8%
10 Mikal Bridges NY
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
24%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
15%
Jumper
26%
Layup
31%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jalen Brunson NY 25.2 3.4 6.8
2 Karl-Anthony Towns NY 22.1 10.6 5.4
3 CJ McCollum ATL 21.6 3.8 4.2
4 Jalen Johnson ATL 19.8 9.3 5.1
5 Nickeil Alexander-Walker ATL 19.2 3.7 3.0
6 OG Anunoby NY 16.6 7.1 1.7
7 Onyeka Okongwu ATL 13.1 6.5 1.9
8 Jonathan Kuminga ATL 12.4 4.0 1.4
9 Mikal Bridges NY 11.6 2.6 2.2
10 Dyson Daniels ATL 11.5 7.9 5.5
11 Josh Hart NY 11.1 7.2 3.9
12 Jose Alvarado NY 7.2 2.2 2.6
13 Miles McBride NY 6.3 1.7 1.4
14 Mitchell Robinson NY 6.2 6.7 0.8
15 Jordan Clarkson NY 5.3 2.2 1.0
16 Corey Kispert ATL 4.8 1.5 0.8
17 Landry Shamet NY 4.7 1.3 0.9
18 Zaccharie Risacher ATL 4.5 2.7 0.6
19 Gabe Vincent ATL 4.1 1.1 1.3
20 Tony Bradley ATL 4.1 3.5 0.7
21 Asa Newell ATL 4.1 2.2 0.8
22 Buddy Hield ATL 3.8 1.2 0.9
23 Tyler Kolek NY 3.6 1.2 2.2
24 Mohamed Diawara NY 3.6 1.1 1.0
25 Ariel Hukporti NY 3.0 3.0 0.7
26 Keaton Wallace ATL 2.8 1.0 0.9
27 Mouhamed Gueye ATL 2.7 2.3 0.7
28 Jeremy Sochan NY 2.6 1.9 0.6
29 Pacome Dadiet NY 2.5 1.0 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.