NBA games

NY @ ATL

NBA State Farm Arena ·Final
114–98
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
NY27312828114
ATL2024213398

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (ATL) / 10 (NY) games this season
NY away
home ATL
37% 63%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
OG Anunoby S 40 22 10 1
Karl-Anthony Towns S 29 20 10 10
Jalen Brunson S 34 19 0 3
Miles McBride 23 11 0 1
Josh Hart S 31 10 9 3
Mikal Bridges S 19 8 2 1
Jordan Clarkson 21 7 0 0
Jose Alvarado 14 6 1 2
Mitchell Robinson 15 6 8 1
Landry Shamet 4 3 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
CJ McCollum S 32 17 1 3
Nickeil Alexander-Walker S 35 15 4 1
Jalen Johnson S 35 14 3 5
Onyeka Okongwu S 28 12 6 1
Jonathan Kuminga 25 10 2 0
Gabe Vincent 14 10 0 2
Dyson Daniels S 30 6 9 6
Tony Bradley 7 4 5 0
Corey Kispert 11 3 2 1
Zaccharie Risacher 4 3 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jalen Brunson · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:35 Q1
"Jalen Brunson makes 14-foot fade away jump shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Karl-Anthony Towns NY
10%
2 Jalen Brunson NY
9%
3 Jalen Johnson ATL
9%
4 CJ McCollum ATL
8%
5 Onyeka Okongwu ATL
8%
6 OG Anunoby NY
7%
7 Ariel Hukporti NY
7%
8 Dyson Daniels ATL
7%
9 Asa Newell ATL
6%
10 Nickeil Alexander-Walker ATL
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
26%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
16%
Jumper
20%
Layup
32%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jalen Brunson NY 26.6 3.5 7.4
2 Karl-Anthony Towns NY 21.5 10.3 4.5
3 Jalen Johnson ATL 21.4 9.5 5.9
4 CJ McCollum ATL 21.3 3.7 4.6
5 Nickeil Alexander-Walker ATL 20.7 3.8 3.8
6 OG Anunoby NY 16.6 6.3 1.7
7 Onyeka Okongwu ATL 12.9 6.8 2.0
8 Mikal Bridges NY 12.3 2.7 2.3
9 Jonathan Kuminga ATL 12.2 4.0 1.5
10 Dyson Daniels ATL 11.4 7.5 5.4
11 Josh Hart NY 11.3 6.8 3.9
12 Jose Alvarado NY 6.8 2.3 2.5
13 Mitchell Robinson NY 6.7 6.9 0.7
14 Miles McBride NY 6.7 2.0 1.5
15 Corey Kispert ATL 6.2 1.7 1.0
16 Jordan Clarkson NY 6.0 2.6 1.0
17 Landry Shamet NY 5.2 1.7 1.0
18 Gabe Vincent ATL 4.4 1.5 1.6
19 Mouhamed Gueye ATL 4.3 2.8 0.9
20 Zaccharie Risacher ATL 4.0 2.5 0.5
21 Buddy Hield ATL 3.9 1.3 1.0
22 Asa Newell ATL 3.6 1.8 0.6
23 Tony Bradley ATL 3.5 3.0 0.6
24 Mohamed Diawara NY 3.3 1.0 1.0
25 Tyler Kolek NY 2.7 0.7 1.8
26 Jeremy Sochan NY 2.5 1.8 0.6
27 Pacome Dadiet NY 2.4 1.0 0.4
28 Ariel Hukporti NY 2.2 2.3 0.5
29 Keaton Wallace ATL 2.0 0.6 0.8

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.