NBA games

NY @ ATL

NBA State Farm Arena ·Final
108–109
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
NY21293028108
ATL33253021109

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (ATL) / 10 (NY) games this season
NY away
home ATL
37% 63%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
OG Anunoby S 37 29 9 1
Jalen Brunson S 40 26 3 4
Karl-Anthony Towns S 34 21 17 4
Miles McBride 31 15 1 1
Jordan Clarkson 17 8 2 1
Jose Alvarado 6 5 0 0
Josh Hart S 40 2 9 6
Mitchell Robinson 11 2 4 0
Landry Shamet 3 0 0 0
Mikal Bridges S 21 0 1 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Johnson S 38 24 10 8
CJ McCollum S 35 23 5 1
Jonathan Kuminga 28 21 4 0
Nickeil Alexander-Walker S 38 14 3 0
Onyeka Okongwu S 37 9 7 1
Dyson Daniels S 33 8 13 6
Mouhamed Gueye 11 5 1 1
Gabe Vincent 14 5 1 1
Corey Kispert 5 0 1 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jalen Brunson · Layup (2 pts) · 10:57 Q1
"Jalen Brunson makes driving layup"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Brunson NY
10%
2 CJ McCollum ATL
9%
3 Karl-Anthony Towns NY
9%
4 Jalen Johnson ATL
8%
5 Onyeka Okongwu ATL
8%
6 Nickeil Alexander-Walker ATL
7%
7 Ariel Hukporti NY
6%
8 Mikal Bridges NY
6%
9 Asa Newell ATL
6%
10 Dyson Daniels ATL
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
11%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
19%
Jumper
56%
Layup
12%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jalen Brunson NY 26.1 3.3 8.1
2 Jalen Johnson ATL 21.6 8.7 5.5
3 Karl-Anthony Towns NY 21.5 9.9 4.2
4 Nickeil Alexander-Walker ATL 21.5 3.9 4.3
5 CJ McCollum ATL 21.0 3.6 4.9
6 OG Anunoby NY 14.8 5.7 1.8
7 Mikal Bridges NY 12.9 2.7 2.4
8 Onyeka Okongwu ATL 12.9 6.2 2.1
9 Josh Hart NY 12.7 6.7 3.7
10 Dyson Daniels ATL 12.4 7.7 5.5
11 Jonathan Kuminga ATL 11.0 4.0 1.5
12 Mitchell Robinson NY 7.8 7.2 0.8
13 Jose Alvarado NY 7.0 2.4 3.2
14 Corey Kispert ATL 6.8 1.6 1.2
15 Miles McBride NY 6.2 2.0 1.7
16 Landry Shamet NY 6.0 1.8 1.0
17 Jordan Clarkson NY 5.4 2.4 0.9
18 Tony Bradley ATL 4.4 3.3 0.8
19 Zaccharie Risacher ATL 4.3 2.6 0.5
20 Gabe Vincent ATL 4.2 1.4 1.6
21 Mouhamed Gueye ATL 4.1 2.8 0.9
22 Buddy Hield ATL 3.9 1.3 1.0
23 Asa Newell ATL 3.6 1.9 0.6
24 Mohamed Diawara NY 3.4 1.0 1.0
25 Tyler Kolek NY 2.7 0.8 1.8
26 Jeremy Sochan NY 2.5 1.9 0.6
27 Pacome Dadiet NY 2.4 1.0 0.4
28 Ariel Hukporti NY 2.2 2.4 0.5
29 Keaton Wallace ATL 2.1 0.6 0.8

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.