NBA games

ATL @ NY

NBA Madison Square Garden ·Final
107–106
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ATL23312528107
NY32293015106

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NY) / 10 (ATL) games this season
ATL away
home NY
48% 52%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
CJ McCollum S 35 32 3 6
Jonathan Kuminga 35 19 4 1
Jalen Johnson S 36 17 8 3
Onyeka Okongwu S 30 15 8 1
Nickeil Alexander-Walker S 38 9 5 6
Dyson Daniels S 26 6 4 2
Corey Kispert 9 4 2 1
Gabe Vincent 14 3 1 1
Tony Bradley 12 2 1 1
Mouhamed Gueye 5 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Brunson S 35 29 2 7
Karl-Anthony Towns S 34 18 8 2
Josh Hart S 35 15 13 6
OG Anunoby S 38 14 8 2
Mitchell Robinson 18 13 7 0
Mikal Bridges S 37 10 1 2
Jordan Clarkson 11 7 5 0
Miles McBride 13 0 1 0
Jose Alvarado 9 0 2 3
Landry Shamet 10 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Karl-Anthony Towns · Layup (2 pts) · 10:51 Q1
"Karl-Anthony Towns makes driving layup (Jalen Brunson assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Johnson ATL
10%
2 CJ McCollum ATL
8%
3 Onyeka Okongwu ATL
7%
4 Jalen Brunson NY
7%
5 Nickeil Alexander-Walker ATL
6%
6 Karl-Anthony Towns NY
6%
7 Mikal Bridges NY
6%
8 Ariel Hukporti NY
5%
9 Dyson Daniels ATL
5%
10 Tony Bradley ATL
5%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
20%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
11%
Jumper
27%
Layup
36%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jalen Brunson NY 25.8 3.3 8.1
2 Jalen Johnson ATL 22.5 8.8 6.3
3 Karl-Anthony Towns NY 22.2 10.4 4.4
4 Nickeil Alexander-Walker ATL 21.8 3.7 3.9
5 CJ McCollum ATL 20.5 3.7 4.7
6 OG Anunoby NY 15.1 5.5 2.0
7 Mikal Bridges NY 13.4 2.9 2.8
8 Onyeka Okongwu ATL 13.3 6.0 2.2
9 Dyson Daniels ATL 12.7 7.8 5.5
10 Josh Hart NY 12.6 6.4 3.6
11 Jonathan Kuminga ATL 10.4 3.8 1.5
12 Miles McBride NY 7.4 2.3 1.8
13 Mitchell Robinson NY 6.8 7.7 0.8
14 Landry Shamet NY 6.6 2.1 1.1
15 Jose Alvarado NY 6.4 2.0 2.9
16 Jordan Clarkson NY 5.5 2.2 1.1
17 Zaccharie Risacher ATL 5.4 2.9 0.7
18 Corey Kispert ATL 5.1 1.2 1.0
19 Gabe Vincent ATL 4.5 1.4 1.4
20 Buddy Hield ATL 4.2 1.3 1.0
21 Mouhamed Gueye ATL 4.0 2.8 0.9
22 Asa Newell ATL 3.8 2.0 0.6
23 Mohamed Diawara NY 3.6 1.1 1.0
24 Tony Bradley ATL 3.0 2.7 0.5
25 Tyler Kolek NY 2.9 0.7 1.9
26 Jeremy Sochan NY 2.7 1.9 0.6
27 Pacome Dadiet NY 2.6 1.1 0.4
28 Ariel Hukporti NY 2.4 2.6 0.5
29 Keaton Wallace ATL 2.3 0.7 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.