NBA games

POR @ SA

NBA Frost Bank Center ·Final
95–114
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
POR2421203095
SA36292128114

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (SA) / 10 (POR) games this season
POR away
home SA
27% 73%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Deni Avdija S 32 22 3 3
Jerami Grant 17 12 1 1
Robert Williams III 17 11 7 1
Sidy Cissoko 20 11 4 0
Donovan Clingan S 27 10 5 6
Jrue Holiday S 40 8 6 7
Toumani Camara S 33 7 8 2
Shaedon Sharpe 6 5 0 0
Scoot Henderson S 17 5 2 0
Matisse Thybulle 15 2 1 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
De'Aaron Fox S 34 21 3 9
Julian Champagnie S 30 19 7 3
Victor Wembanyama S 34 17 14 3
Dylan Harper 26 17 3 1
Stephon Castle S 33 15 3 5
Devin Vassell S 34 10 1 2
Keldon Johnson 18 7 5 1
Luke Kornet 13 5 3 3
Harrison Barnes 13 3 1 0
Kelly Olynyk 1 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Devin Vassell · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:40 Q1
"Devin Vassell makes 16-foot pullup jump shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Deni Avdija POR
15%
2 Stephon Castle SA
12%
3 De'Aaron Fox SA
12%
4 Victor Wembanyama SA
11%
5 Scoot Henderson POR
10%
6 Jrue Holiday POR
10%
7 Donovan Clingan POR
8%
8 Julian Champagnie SA
8%
9 Devin Vassell SA
7%
10 Toumani Camara POR
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
12%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
42%
Jumper
18%
Layup
25%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Deni Avdija POR 27.9 6.2 6.5
2 Victor Wembanyama SA 27.4 11.5 4.1
3 De'Aaron Fox SA 21.9 4.5 6.2
4 Stephon Castle SA 21.4 6.0 8.0
5 Jrue Holiday POR 19.7 5.4 6.2
6 Scoot Henderson POR 15.5 2.7 2.6
7 Dylan Harper SA 13.8 4.1 3.3
8 Devin Vassell SA 13.6 5.7 2.4
9 Jerami Grant POR 13.5 3.4 1.4
10 Toumani Camara POR 11.3 3.9 1.8
11 Keldon Johnson SA 10.9 5.2 1.5
12 Julian Champagnie SA 10.0 5.4 1.5
13 Donovan Clingan POR 9.3 9.1 1.6
14 Shaedon Sharpe POR 8.9 2.3 1.5
15 Luke Kornet SA 8.0 6.2 1.7
16 Robert Williams III POR 7.6 7.4 1.6
17 Carter Bryant SA 6.0 3.0 1.7
18 Harrison Barnes SA 5.9 1.4 1.1
19 Matisse Thybulle POR 5.0 2.2 1.1
20 Kris Murray POR 4.2 2.2 1.1
21 Lindy Waters III SA 3.5 1.3 0.8
22 Vit Krejci POR 3.4 2.2 1.0
23 Jordan McLaughlin SA 3.2 1.3 1.2
24 Blake Wesley POR 3.0 1.5 0.6
25 Mason Plumlee SA 2.6 2.0 0.7
26 Sidy Cissoko POR 2.4 1.2 0.7
27 Bismack Biyombo SA 2.4 1.5 0.5
28 Yang Hansen POR 2.3 1.2 0.4
29 Kelly Olynyk SA 2.1 1.2 0.8

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.