NBA games

SA @ POR

NBA Moda Center ·Final
114–93
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SA23183340114
POR2533161993

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (POR) / 10 (SA) games this season
SA away
home POR
63% 37%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
De'Aaron Fox S 39 28 6 7
Victor Wembanyama S 34 27 12 3
Stephon Castle S 26 16 1 8
Devin Vassell S 35 11 6 3
Keldon Johnson 17 9 1 1
Julian Champagnie S 29 8 3 0
Carter Bryant 6 6 1 1
Dylan Harper 25 3 2 1
Jordan McLaughlin 2 2 0 1
Harrison Barnes 11 2 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Deni Avdija S 37 26 7 3
Jrue Holiday S 37 20 6 4
Jerami Grant 33 17 5 1
Shaedon Sharpe 13 8 3 0
Toumani Camara S 31 8 5 1
Donovan Clingan S 14 5 6 0
Robert Williams III 26 4 6 2
Kris Murray 13 4 1 0
Blake Wesley 2 1 0 0
Sidy Cissoko 4 0 0 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Deni Avdija · Layup (2 pts) · 11:36 Q1
"Deni Avdija makes running layup"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Mason Plumlee SA
14%
2 Deni Avdija POR
10%
3 Stephon Castle SA
10%
4 Victor Wembanyama SA
10%
5 De'Aaron Fox SA
9%
6 Jrue Holiday POR
8%
7 Scoot Henderson POR
7%
8 Luke Kornet SA
7%
9 Toumani Camara POR
7%
10 Donovan Clingan POR
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
3%
Dunk
73%
Free Throw
2%
Jumper
14%
Layup
7%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Deni Avdija POR 27.5 6.6 7.3
2 Victor Wembanyama SA 27.2 11.6 3.8
3 Stephon Castle SA 22.1 6.7 8.1
4 Jrue Holiday POR 21.1 5.4 6.4
5 De'Aaron Fox SA 19.6 4.1 5.9
6 Scoot Henderson POR 17.7 3.0 2.9
7 Dylan Harper SA 15.2 4.2 3.7
8 Jerami Grant POR 14.0 3.1 1.5
9 Devin Vassell SA 12.9 5.4 2.3
10 Toumani Camara POR 12.3 4.2 1.9
11 Keldon Johnson SA 11.3 5.4 1.4
12 Shaedon Sharpe POR 11.1 2.5 2.0
13 Julian Champagnie SA 10.2 5.3 1.7
14 Donovan Clingan POR 9.9 9.2 1.7
15 Robert Williams III POR 8.0 7.5 1.6
16 Luke Kornet SA 7.9 5.5 1.7
17 Harrison Barnes SA 6.7 1.9 1.1
18 Carter Bryant SA 6.0 3.1 1.6
19 Matisse Thybulle POR 5.8 2.4 1.2
20 Vit Krejci POR 5.0 2.7 1.2
21 Kris Murray POR 4.7 2.7 1.7
22 Blake Wesley POR 3.4 1.6 0.8
23 Sidy Cissoko POR 2.6 1.4 0.7
24 Yang Hansen POR 2.6 1.6 0.5
25 Lindy Waters III SA 2.5 0.9 0.6
26 Kelly Olynyk SA 2.4 1.3 0.8
27 Jordan McLaughlin SA 1.9 0.7 0.9
28 Bismack Biyombo SA 1.4 1.2 0.3
29 Mason Plumlee SA 1.3 1.8 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.