NBA games

TOR @ CLE

NBA Rocket Arena ·Final
102–114
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
TOR26231934102
CLE24253827114

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CLE) / 10 (TOR) games this season
TOR away
home CLE
48% 52%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Scottie Barnes S 37 24 9 6
RJ Barrett S 43 23 4 6
Jamal Shead S 36 14 3 7
Ja'Kobe Walter S 38 13 2 2
Jakob Poeltl S 22 9 7 0
Collin Murray-Boyles 24 8 4 3
Sandro Mamukelashvili 9 6 0 0
Jamison Battle 14 3 2 1
A.J. Lawson 16 2 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jarrett Allen S 33 22 19 2
Donovan Mitchell S 35 22 3 1
James Harden S 37 18 6 3
Sam Merrill 23 13 3 2
Evan Mobley S 27 13 7 4
Max Strus 31 12 8 5
Jaylon Tyson 19 7 9 4
Dean Wade S 21 5 4 1
Dennis Schroder 14 2 1 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Scottie Barnes · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:18 Q1
"Scottie Barnes makes 15-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Donovan Mitchell CLE
14%
2 James Harden CLE
13%
3 Evan Mobley CLE
13%
4 RJ Barrett TOR
11%
5 Jarrett Allen CLE
11%
6 Jakob Poeltl TOR
10%
7 Scottie Barnes TOR
9%
8 Jamal Shead TOR
7%
9 Ja'Kobe Walter TOR
7%
10 Max Strus CLE
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
13%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
21%
Jumper
47%
Layup
16%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Scottie Barnes TOR 23.9 6.3 7.7
2 RJ Barrett TOR 23.9 6.5 3.9
3 Donovan Mitchell CLE 23.6 5.4 4.4
4 James Harden CLE 22.4 4.3 6.5
5 Evan Mobley CLE 19.2 9.1 3.5
6 Collin Murray-Boyles TOR 13.1 6.8 2.3
7 Jarrett Allen CLE 11.5 7.4 1.2
8 Ja'Kobe Walter TOR 10.4 3.1 1.6
9 Jamal Shead TOR 8.9 2.1 4.8
10 Max Strus CLE 8.7 3.9 1.8
11 Jaylon Tyson CLE 8.7 3.3 2.1
12 Sam Merrill CLE 8.3 2.1 1.7
13 Dennis Schroder CLE 8.1 2.0 2.8
14 Jakob Poeltl TOR 7.5 5.1 1.6
15 Sandro Mamukelashvili TOR 6.8 5.1 1.5
16 Dean Wade CLE 6.2 3.4 1.2
17 Thomas Bryant CLE 5.6 3.9 0.7
18 Tyrese Proctor CLE 5.2 1.5 1.5
19 Keon Ellis CLE 4.5 2.2 1.0
20 Jamison Battle TOR 4.1 1.3 0.6
21 Nae'Qwan Tomlin CLE 4.0 2.8 0.8
22 A.J. Lawson TOR 3.5 1.3 0.7
23 Craig Porter Jr. CLE 3.2 2.5 1.6
24 Larry Nance Jr. CLE 2.7 1.6 0.6
25 Gradey Dick TOR 2.4 0.8 0.3
26 Trayce Jackson-Davis TOR 1.6 1.0 0.3
27 Jonathan Mogbo TOR 1.5 1.2 0.5
28 Garrett Temple TOR 1.4 0.6 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.