NBA games

SA @ POR

NBA Moda Center ·Final
120–108
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SA27322932120
POR29362221108

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (POR) / 10 (SA) games this season
SA away
home POR
40% 60%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Stephon Castle S 34 33 2 5
Dylan Harper 30 27 10 3
De'Aaron Fox S 36 18 4 6
Luke Kornet S 30 14 10 2
Devin Vassell S 33 11 7 3
Julian Champagnie S 27 9 6 1
Keldon Johnson 21 5 5 3
Carter Bryant 23 3 6 4
Harrison Barnes 6 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jrue Holiday S 41 29 6 5
Scoot Henderson S 36 21 2 1
Deni Avdija S 37 19 6 9
Jerami Grant 23 13 2 0
Robert Williams III 25 11 9 2
Donovan Clingan S 20 7 11 2
Shaedon Sharpe 14 4 3 1
Toumani Camara S 33 2 3 1
Matisse Thybulle 6 2 2 0
Yang Hansen 1 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Donovan Clingan · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:30 Q1
"Donovan Clingan makes 26-foot three point jumper (Scoot Henderson assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Mason Plumlee SA
17%
2 Stephon Castle SA
12%
3 Deni Avdija POR
12%
4 De'Aaron Fox SA
11%
5 Scoot Henderson POR
10%
6 Jrue Holiday POR
8%
7 Donovan Clingan POR
8%
8 Toumani Camara POR
7%
9 Devin Vassell SA
7%
10 Julian Champagnie SA
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
3%
Dunk
73%
Free Throw
2%
Jumper
14%
Layup
7%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Deni Avdija POR 28.0 6.8 6.8
2 Stephon Castle SA 21.0 6.9 8.0
3 Jrue Holiday POR 19.3 4.8 6.2
4 De'Aaron Fox SA 18.9 4.1 5.8
5 Scoot Henderson POR 18.0 3.1 3.4
6 Shaedon Sharpe POR 14.4 2.7 2.3
7 Toumani Camara POR 14.1 4.6 2.0
8 Jerami Grant POR 13.3 3.1 1.5
9 Dylan Harper SA 13.2 3.9 3.6
10 Devin Vassell SA 12.0 5.3 2.2
11 Keldon Johnson SA 11.5 5.1 1.4
12 Julian Champagnie SA 9.9 5.2 1.7
13 Donovan Clingan POR 9.8 8.6 1.7
14 Robert Williams III POR 6.9 7.4 1.5
15 Harrison Barnes SA 6.5 1.7 1.1
16 Luke Kornet SA 6.1 5.2 1.5
17 Matisse Thybulle POR 5.8 2.4 1.3
18 Kris Murray POR 5.1 2.9 1.8
19 Carter Bryant SA 4.9 2.4 1.3
20 Vit Krejci POR 4.5 2.3 1.1
21 Blake Wesley POR 2.6 1.1 0.7
22 Lindy Waters III SA 2.5 0.8 0.5
23 Kelly Olynyk SA 2.4 1.2 0.8
24 Yang Hansen POR 2.0 1.2 0.3
25 Sidy Cissoko POR 1.7 1.2 0.7
26 Mason Plumlee SA 1.3 1.7 0.6
27 Bismack Biyombo SA 1.3 1.1 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.