NBA games

CLE @ TOR

NBA Scotiabank Arena ·Final
110–112
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4Q5T
CLE321930236110
TOR322931128112

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (TOR) / 10 (CLE) games this season
CLE away
home TOR
44% 56%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Evan Mobley S 41 26 14 3
Donovan Mitchell S 41 24 5 2
James Harden S 44 16 9 9
Jarrett Allen S 34 14 7 1
Dean Wade 28 10 5 0
Dennis Schroder 16 7 0 1
Max Strus S 20 6 5 3
Jaylon Tyson 16 5 4 3
Sam Merrill 18 2 1 1
Thomas Bryant 7 0 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Scottie Barnes S 48 25 7 14
RJ Barrett S 43 24 9 3
Ja'Kobe Walter S 43 24 5 0
Collin Murray-Boyles 40 17 7 2
Jamal Shead S 33 7 1 6
A.J. Lawson 10 6 1 0
Jamison Battle 11 5 0 0
Jakob Poeltl S 22 2 4 1
Sandro Mamukelashvili 14 2 4 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jarrett Allen · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:42 Q1
"Jarrett Allen makes 1-foot reverse dunk (Evan Mobley assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 RJ Barrett TOR
13%
2 Evan Mobley CLE
13%
3 Donovan Mitchell CLE
12%
4 Jakob Poeltl TOR
12%
5 Jarrett Allen CLE
11%
6 Scottie Barnes TOR
11%
7 James Harden CLE
10%
8 Max Strus CLE
9%
9 Ja'Kobe Walter TOR
8%
10 Dean Wade CLE
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
18%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
24%
Jumper
32%
Layup
20%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Donovan Mitchell CLE 24.7 5.0 4.4
2 RJ Barrett TOR 24.0 5.9 4.0
3 Scottie Barnes TOR 22.9 6.2 7.2
4 James Harden CLE 22.6 3.9 6.1
5 Evan Mobley CLE 17.1 8.1 3.3
6 Collin Murray-Boyles TOR 12.6 6.4 2.2
7 Jarrett Allen CLE 11.4 7.6 1.1
8 Ja'Kobe Walter TOR 10.0 3.0 1.7
9 Max Strus CLE 9.5 4.0 1.8
10 Jamal Shead TOR 9.0 2.1 4.8
11 Jakob Poeltl TOR 8.7 5.0 1.5
12 Sam Merrill CLE 8.7 2.3 1.9
13 Jaylon Tyson CLE 8.7 3.3 1.8
14 Dennis Schroder CLE 8.6 2.2 3.2
15 Sandro Mamukelashvili TOR 7.9 5.2 1.7
16 Thomas Bryant CLE 6.3 4.5 0.8
17 Dean Wade CLE 5.9 3.6 1.1
18 Tyrese Proctor CLE 5.5 1.6 1.4
19 Keon Ellis CLE 4.9 2.2 0.9
20 Nae'Qwan Tomlin CLE 4.2 3.0 0.8
21 Jamison Battle TOR 3.8 1.3 0.6
22 Craig Porter Jr. CLE 3.5 2.7 1.5
23 A.J. Lawson TOR 3.2 1.3 0.7
24 Larry Nance Jr. CLE 2.8 1.7 0.6
25 Gradey Dick TOR 2.5 0.9 0.3
26 Trayce Jackson-Davis TOR 1.5 1.1 0.3
27 Garrett Temple TOR 1.4 0.7 0.5
28 Jonathan Mogbo TOR 1.4 1.3 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.