NBA games

TOR @ CLE

NBA Rocket Arena ·Final
120–125
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
TOR34402917120
CLE38293325125

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CLE) / 10 (TOR) games this season
TOR away
home CLE
51% 49%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
RJ Barrett S 38 25 12 5
Ja'Kobe Walter S 35 20 3 2
Jamal Shead 34 18 1 7
Scottie Barnes S 39 17 8 11
Jakob Poeltl S 21 14 9 3
Sandro Mamukelashvili 15 10 3 0
Collin Murray-Boyles 26 8 5 2
Jamison Battle 19 7 6 0
Brandon Ingram S 11 1 1 2
A.J. Lawson 2 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Evan Mobley S 33 23 9 1
James Harden S 40 23 9 5
Dennis Schroder 21 19 0 2
Donovan Mitchell S 31 19 5 3
Jarrett Allen S 25 9 3 1
Sam Merrill 23 9 1 2
Jaylon Tyson 13 8 1 2
Max Strus S 27 8 4 2
Dean Wade 21 7 3 1
Thomas Bryant 5 0 0 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
RJ Barrett · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:14 Q1
"RJ Barrett makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jakob Poeltl assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Evan Mobley CLE
16%
2 Donovan Mitchell CLE
13%
3 Brandon Ingram TOR
11%
4 Scottie Barnes TOR
11%
5 RJ Barrett TOR
10%
6 Jarrett Allen CLE
9%
7 James Harden CLE
9%
8 Jakob Poeltl TOR
9%
9 Dean Wade CLE
6%
10 Ja'Kobe Walter TOR
5%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
7%
Dunk
9%
Free Throw
22%
Jumper
28%
Layup
34%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Donovan Mitchell CLE 24.2 5.0 5.0
2 RJ Barrett TOR 23.4 5.4 4.0
3 James Harden CLE 22.5 3.6 6.9
4 Scottie Barnes TOR 21.6 5.8 6.7
5 Brandon Ingram TOR 21.0 5.0 3.9
6 Evan Mobley CLE 19.3 8.9 3.6
7 Collin Murray-Boyles TOR 13.7 6.2 2.1
8 Jarrett Allen CLE 11.5 7.5 1.1
9 Max Strus CLE 9.3 3.9 1.7
10 Sam Merrill CLE 9.1 2.2 2.0
11 Ja'Kobe Walter TOR 8.9 3.2 1.5
12 Jaylon Tyson CLE 8.3 3.2 1.8
13 Jakob Poeltl TOR 7.9 4.6 1.5
14 Dennis Schroder CLE 7.8 2.3 3.3
15 Jamal Shead TOR 7.8 2.0 4.6
16 Sandro Mamukelashvili TOR 7.7 5.3 1.7
17 Thomas Bryant CLE 6.4 4.7 0.6
18 Tyrese Proctor CLE 5.9 1.6 1.5
19 Dean Wade CLE 5.7 3.3 1.2
20 Keon Ellis CLE 5.4 2.4 1.2
21 Nae'Qwan Tomlin CLE 4.6 3.0 0.8
22 Craig Porter Jr. CLE 3.8 2.7 1.6
23 A.J. Lawson TOR 3.1 1.4 0.6
24 Larry Nance Jr. CLE 3.1 1.7 0.7
25 Jamison Battle TOR 2.9 1.0 0.5
26 Gradey Dick TOR 2.7 0.9 0.3
27 Trayce Jackson-Davis TOR 1.7 1.1 0.3
28 Garrett Temple TOR 1.6 0.7 0.4
29 Jonathan Mogbo TOR 1.6 1.3 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.