NBA games

POR @ SA

NBA Frost Bank Center ·Final
106–103
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
POR27302227106
SA28292323103

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (SA) / 10 (POR) games this season
POR away
home SA
25% 75%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Scoot Henderson S 38 31 1 0
Jrue Holiday S 39 16 5 9
Deni Avdija S 30 14 4 3
Robert Williams III 23 11 9 4
Toumani Camara S 35 10 9 1
Donovan Clingan S 24 9 10 2
Shaedon Sharpe 13 9 1 0
Jerami Grant 20 5 1 0
Kris Murray 8 1 2 0
Matisse Thybulle 10 0 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Stephon Castle S 38 18 7 5
De'Aaron Fox S 34 17 2 4
Devin Vassell S 34 16 12 2
Luke Kornet 28 10 9 2
Dylan Harper 23 10 0 2
Julian Champagnie S 27 9 4 0
Keldon Johnson 18 7 4 1
Carter Bryant 12 7 2 2
Victor Wembanyama S 12 5 4 1
Harrison Barnes 15 4 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Stephon Castle · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:35 Q1
"Stephon Castle makes 10-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Mason Plumlee SA
15%
2 Victor Wembanyama SA
12%
3 Stephon Castle SA
10%
4 Deni Avdija POR
10%
5 Scoot Henderson POR
10%
6 De'Aaron Fox SA
10%
7 Julian Champagnie SA
8%
8 Donovan Clingan POR
7%
9 Toumani Camara POR
6%
10 Jrue Holiday POR
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
3%
Dunk
75%
Free Throw
2%
Jumper
12%
Layup
8%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Victor Wembanyama SA 32.3 11.9 4.1
2 Deni Avdija POR 28.3 7.1 7.1
3 Stephon Castle SA 21.7 6.9 8.2
4 Jrue Holiday POR 19.0 4.7 5.9
5 De'Aaron Fox SA 17.6 4.1 5.9
6 Scoot Henderson POR 16.2 3.1 3.6
7 Jerami Grant POR 15.5 3.4 1.7
8 Toumani Camara POR 14.6 4.3 2.1
9 Shaedon Sharpe POR 14.6 3.0 2.6
10 Dylan Harper SA 13.8 3.9 3.6
11 Keldon Johnson SA 12.8 4.8 1.7
12 Devin Vassell SA 11.9 4.6 2.2
13 Julian Champagnie SA 10.1 5.2 1.8
14 Donovan Clingan POR 9.7 9.2 1.7
15 Harrison Barnes SA 7.0 1.9 1.3
16 Matisse Thybulle POR 6.5 2.5 1.4
17 Robert Williams III POR 6.4 6.7 1.3
18 Luke Kornet SA 6.3 5.1 1.6
19 Carter Bryant SA 5.7 2.5 1.3
20 Kris Murray POR 5.5 2.8 1.8
21 Vit Krejci POR 5.4 2.6 1.3
22 Blake Wesley POR 3.5 1.6 0.9
23 Lindy Waters III SA 3.5 1.3 0.8
24 Kelly Olynyk SA 3.4 1.7 1.0
25 Yang Hansen POR 2.9 1.7 0.5
26 Sidy Cissoko POR 2.6 1.7 0.9
27 Bismack Biyombo SA 2.2 1.6 0.5
28 Mason Plumlee SA 1.4 1.7 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.