NBA games

CLE @ TOR

NBA Scotiabank Arena ·Final
89–93
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CLE1719223189
TOR1424223393

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (TOR) / 10 (CLE) games this season
CLE away
home TOR
39% 61%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Donovan Mitchell S 37 20 6 3
James Harden S 37 19 2 8
Sam Merrill 19 14 0 0
Jaylon Tyson 21 9 5 0
Evan Mobley S 32 8 9 3
Dennis Schroder 13 8 5 0
Dean Wade S 28 7 5 0
Jarrett Allen S 27 3 15 0
Max Strus 21 1 7 0
Keon Ellis 4 0 2 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Brandon Ingram S 36 23 6 0
Scottie Barnes S 42 23 9 6
RJ Barrett S 39 18 8 1
Collin Murray-Boyles 27 15 10 3
Jakob Poeltl S 21 10 6 1
Jamal Shead 26 2 4 4
Sandro Mamukelashvili 13 2 8 1
Ja'Kobe Walter S 27 0 7 3
Jamison Battle 9 0 1 0
A.J. Lawson 1 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Scottie Barnes · Layup (2 pts) · 10:44 Q1
"Scottie Barnes makes two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Donovan Mitchell CLE
15%
2 Evan Mobley CLE
13%
3 Jarrett Allen CLE
11%
4 Brandon Ingram TOR
11%
5 Scottie Barnes TOR
10%
6 RJ Barrett TOR
10%
7 Jakob Poeltl TOR
9%
8 James Harden CLE
8%
9 Ja'Kobe Walter TOR
6%
10 Dean Wade CLE
5%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
24%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
9%
Jumper
44%
Layup
19%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Donovan Mitchell CLE 24.4 5.0 5.0
2 RJ Barrett TOR 24.2 5.1 4.1
3 James Harden CLE 21.4 3.8 6.7
4 Brandon Ingram TOR 20.6 4.7 4.0
5 Scottie Barnes TOR 20.4 5.2 7.3
6 Evan Mobley CLE 19.9 8.9 3.5
7 Collin Murray-Boyles TOR 13.6 6.3 2.0
8 Jarrett Allen CLE 13.0 6.7 1.2
9 Max Strus CLE 10.9 4.0 1.9
10 Sam Merrill CLE 9.9 2.6 2.1
11 Jamal Shead TOR 9.6 1.8 5.0
12 Ja'Kobe Walter TOR 9.6 3.0 1.7
13 Sandro Mamukelashvili TOR 9.4 5.4 2.2
14 Jakob Poeltl TOR 8.8 4.6 1.7
15 Jaylon Tyson CLE 8.5 2.9 2.0
16 Dennis Schroder CLE 7.4 2.2 3.6
17 Thomas Bryant CLE 7.2 4.9 0.7
18 Tyrese Proctor CLE 6.8 2.0 1.8
19 Keon Ellis CLE 6.5 2.6 1.2
20 Dean Wade CLE 6.1 3.4 1.2
21 Nae'Qwan Tomlin CLE 5.6 3.4 1.0
22 Craig Porter Jr. CLE 4.6 3.1 1.8
23 Larry Nance Jr. CLE 4.1 2.1 0.9
24 A.J. Lawson TOR 3.8 1.7 0.8
25 Jamison Battle TOR 3.8 1.3 0.7
26 Gradey Dick TOR 3.6 1.3 0.6
27 Trayce Jackson-Davis TOR 2.6 1.5 0.6
28 Garrett Temple TOR 2.5 1.1 0.8
29 Jonathan Mogbo TOR 2.5 1.7 0.9

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.