NBA games

CLE @ TOR

NBA Scotiabank Arena ·Final
104–126
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CLE25292723104
TOR31232943126

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (TOR) / 10 (CLE) games this season
CLE away
home TOR
43% 57%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
James Harden S 33 18 4 4
Donovan Mitchell S 33 15 5 3
Evan Mobley S 33 15 6 7
Max Strus 26 15 6 3
Jaylon Tyson 16 13 2 4
Jarrett Allen S 26 12 4 1
Dean Wade S 22 5 5 0
Sam Merrill 18 3 3 0
Dennis Schroder 5 3 1 0
Thomas Bryant 3 3 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Scottie Barnes S 35 33 5 11
RJ Barrett S 39 33 5 5
Collin Murray-Boyles 28 22 8 2
Jamison Battle 16 14 2 0
Brandon Ingram S 29 12 3 2
Jakob Poeltl S 18 8 6 2
Jonathan Mogbo 2 2 0 0
Jamal Shead 30 2 1 5
Ja'Kobe Walter S 26 0 2 0
Sandro Mamukelashvili 11 0 2 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Donovan Mitchell · Layup (2 pts) · 11:46 Q1
"Donovan Mitchell makes 1-foot layup (James Harden assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Scottie Barnes TOR
12%
2 Brandon Ingram TOR
11%
3 Jarrett Allen CLE
11%
4 Donovan Mitchell CLE
11%
5 Evan Mobley CLE
10%
6 RJ Barrett TOR
10%
7 Jakob Poeltl TOR
9%
8 James Harden CLE
8%
9 Thomas Bryant CLE
6%
10 Jamal Shead TOR
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
13%
Dunk
11%
Free Throw
21%
Jumper
31%
Layup
25%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Donovan Mitchell CLE 26.6 4.7 5.0
2 RJ Barrett TOR 23.9 5.1 4.0
3 James Harden CLE 21.6 4.1 7.1
4 Brandon Ingram TOR 21.5 5.0 4.0
5 Evan Mobley CLE 19.5 8.8 3.4
6 Scottie Barnes TOR 18.4 5.2 7.3
7 Jarrett Allen CLE 14.6 7.0 1.4
8 Collin Murray-Boyles TOR 11.7 5.7 1.7
9 Sam Merrill CLE 11.3 3.0 2.3
10 Sandro Mamukelashvili TOR 11.1 5.7 2.2
11 Max Strus CLE 10.8 3.9 1.8
12 Jamal Shead TOR 10.0 1.7 5.5
13 Ja'Kobe Walter TOR 9.9 3.2 1.9
14 Jakob Poeltl TOR 9.0 4.5 1.5
15 Jaylon Tyson CLE 8.6 3.3 1.7
16 Dennis Schroder CLE 7.8 2.1 4.0
17 Keon Ellis CLE 7.5 2.4 1.4
18 Thomas Bryant CLE 6.1 4.2 0.5
19 Dean Wade CLE 5.8 3.0 1.2
20 Tyrese Proctor CLE 5.0 1.5 1.5
21 Nae'Qwan Tomlin CLE 4.7 3.1 0.8
22 A.J. Lawson TOR 3.9 1.6 0.8
23 Craig Porter Jr. CLE 3.9 2.8 1.6
24 Larry Nance Jr. CLE 3.4 1.9 0.7
25 Jamison Battle TOR 3.1 1.1 0.5
26 Gradey Dick TOR 2.7 0.9 0.4
27 Trayce Jackson-Davis TOR 1.9 1.1 0.4
28 Jonathan Mogbo TOR 1.8 1.3 0.7
29 Garrett Temple TOR 1.4 0.6 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.