OKC @ PHX
NBA
Mortgage Matchup Center
·Final
131–122
Final
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OKC | 37 | 38 | 31 | 25 | 131 |
| PHX | 33 | 34 | 31 | 24 | 122 |
Statlab take
baseline_gbm
Last 10 (PHX) / 10 (OKC) games this season
OKC
away
home
PHX
55%
45%
GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.
Box score
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S | 38 | 31 | 2 | 8 |
| Chet Holmgren S | 34 | 24 | 12 | 3 |
| Ajay Mitchell S | 34 | 22 | 4 | 6 |
| Isaiah Hartenstein S | 29 | 18 | 12 | 3 |
| Alex Caruso | 25 | 14 | 4 | 1 |
| Cason Wallace | 22 | 10 | 4 | 4 |
| Isaiah Joe | 7 | 6 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaylin Williams | 10 | 3 | 0 | 1 |
| Aaron Wiggins | 11 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| Luguentz Dort S | 27 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
First basket
scorer · ROC 0.80Actual
Collin Gillespie ·
3PT (3 pts) · 11:34 Q1
"Collin Gillespie makes 26-foot three point jumper (Dillon Brooks assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
OKC
23%
2
Devin Booker
PHX
12%
3
Dillon Brooks
PHX
10%
4
Jalen Green
PHX
10%
5
Isaiah Hartenstein
OKC
9%
6
Chet Holmgren
OKC
9%
7
Oso Ighodaro
PHX
8%
8
Ajay Mitchell
OKC
7%
9
Luguentz Dort
OKC
6%
10
Collin Gillespie
PHX
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
3%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
78%
Jumper
3%
Layup
14%
Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.
Statlab projections
| # | Player | Team | Pred PTS | Pred REB | Pred AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | OKC | 30.7 | 4.4 | 6.8 |
| 2 | Devin Booker | PHX | 26.1 | 4.4 | 6.0 |
| 3 | Jalen Green | PHX | 21.6 | 4.7 | 3.6 |
| 4 | Dillon Brooks | PHX | 18.1 | 4.4 | 2.6 |
| 5 | Chet Holmgren | OKC | 15.6 | 7.8 | 1.7 |
| 6 | Grayson Allen | PHX | 11.3 | 3.0 | 2.3 |
| 7 | Ajay Mitchell | OKC | 11.2 | 3.4 | 3.1 |
| 8 | Cason Wallace | OKC | 8.3 | 3.1 | 1.7 |
| 9 | Isaiah Joe | OKC | 7.6 | 1.5 | 0.7 |
| 10 | Luguentz Dort | OKC | 7.5 | 2.4 | 1.5 |
| 11 | Royce O'Neale | PHX | 7.3 | 4.1 | 1.7 |
| 12 | Oso Ighodaro | PHX | 7.3 | 5.6 | 2.5 |
| 13 | Collin Gillespie | PHX | 7.2 | 3.9 | 2.4 |
| 14 | Isaiah Hartenstein | OKC | 7.0 | 7.6 | 1.7 |
| 15 | Jared McCain | OKC | 6.4 | 1.9 | 1.1 |
| 16 | Alex Caruso | OKC | 5.9 | 3.0 | 1.4 |
| 17 | Aaron Wiggins | OKC | 5.7 | 1.7 | 1.3 |
| 18 | Rasheer Fleming | PHX | 5.5 | 1.7 | 0.9 |
| 19 | Nikola Topic | OKC | 5.4 | 1.7 | 3.9 |
| 20 | Jaylin Williams | OKC | 5.1 | 4.9 | 1.6 |
| 21 | Kenrich Williams | OKC | 5.0 | 3.3 | 1.3 |
| 22 | Haywood Highsmith | PHX | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.9 |
| 23 | Jamaree Bouyea | PHX | 4.2 | 1.7 | 1.4 |
| 24 | Khaman Maluach | PHX | 3.7 | 3.6 | 0.5 |
| 25 | Ryan Dunn | PHX | 3.5 | 2.8 | 1.0 |
| 26 | Amir Coffey | PHX | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.7 |
GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.