NBA games

OKC @ PHX

NBA Mortgage Matchup Center ·Final
121–109
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
OKC33292534121
PHX28252630109

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (PHX) / 10 (OKC) games this season
OKC away
home PHX
65% 35%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 38 42 4 8
Ajay Mitchell S 32 15 6 2
Alex Caruso 22 13 5 1
Chet Holmgren S 29 10 7 2
Isaiah Hartenstein S 23 9 3 1
Luguentz Dort S 23 9 6 3
Jaylin Williams 21 8 6 1
Jared McCain 12 7 4 1
Cason Wallace 26 6 1 2
Aaron Wiggins 11 2 1 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Dillon Brooks S 37 33 7 1
Jalen Green S 39 26 5 6
Devin Booker S 39 16 4 7
Oso Ighodaro S 39 15 3 4
Collin Gillespie S 33 7 10 5
Grayson Allen 17 7 1 1
Royce O'Neale 22 3 6 0
Khaman Maluach 7 2 2 0
Ryan Dunn 1 0 0 1
Rasheer Fleming 1 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Luguentz Dort · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:44 Q1
"Luguentz Dort makes 28-foot three point jumper (Chet Holmgren assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Devin Booker PHX
14%
2 Jalen Green PHX
12%
3 Dillon Brooks PHX
11%
4 Chet Holmgren OKC
11%
5 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
10%
6 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC
10%
7 Oso Ighodaro PHX
9%
8 Grayson Allen PHX
8%
9 Collin Gillespie PHX
7%
10 Luguentz Dort OKC
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
9%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
52%
Jumper
15%
Layup
21%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 28.4 4.2 6.9
2 Devin Booker PHX 27.7 4.2 5.9
3 Jalen Green PHX 21.2 4.9 3.2
4 Dillon Brooks PHX 17.0 4.1 2.4
5 Chet Holmgren OKC 15.6 8.0 1.7
6 Grayson Allen PHX 10.3 2.8 2.1
7 Ajay Mitchell OKC 10.2 3.1 3.1
8 Royce O'Neale PHX 8.4 4.5 1.9
9 Cason Wallace OKC 8.3 3.4 1.5
10 Luguentz Dort OKC 7.7 2.2 1.4
11 Collin Gillespie PHX 7.5 3.3 2.2
12 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC 7.2 8.1 2.0
13 Oso Ighodaro PHX 6.6 5.9 2.2
14 Alex Caruso OKC 5.6 2.6 1.4
15 Nikola Topic OKC 5.2 1.6 4.3
16 Jared McCain OKC 5.1 1.3 0.8
17 Jaylin Williams OKC 5.0 4.5 1.5
18 Aaron Wiggins OKC 4.7 1.4 0.9
19 Rasheer Fleming PHX 4.6 1.8 0.7
20 Kenrich Williams OKC 4.0 2.9 1.1
21 Ryan Dunn PHX 4.0 3.4 1.1
22 Khaman Maluach PHX 4.0 4.7 0.4
23 Haywood Highsmith PHX 3.7 1.5 0.8
24 Jamaree Bouyea PHX 3.1 1.2 1.1
25 Amir Coffey PHX 2.4 0.9 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.