NBA games

TOR @ CLE

NBA Rocket Arena ·Final
105–115
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
TOR19292928105
CLE26283031115

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CLE) / 10 (TOR) games this season
TOR away
home CLE
69% 31%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Scottie Barnes S 40 26 4 5
RJ Barrett S 38 22 9 5
Collin Murray-Boyles 26 17 7 1
Ja'Kobe Walter 28 14 1 1
Sandro Mamukelashvili 21 12 10 2
Brandon Ingram S 36 7 4 3
Jamal Shead S 38 3 3 4
Jakob Poeltl S 9 2 4 1
A.J. Lawson 5 2 0 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Donovan Mitchell S 37 30 7 5
James Harden S 35 28 5 4
Evan Mobley S 33 25 8 2
Jarrett Allen S 25 10 3 1
Max Strus 27 6 3 3
Sam Merrill 20 5 1 1
Dennis Schroder 14 5 1 4
Jaylon Tyson 12 3 2 1
Dean Wade S 28 3 5 1
Keon Ellis 9 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jarrett Allen · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:43 Q1
"Jarrett Allen makes 5-foot driving floating jump shot (Evan Mobley assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 RJ Barrett TOR
13%
2 Evan Mobley CLE
13%
3 Jarrett Allen CLE
13%
4 Scottie Barnes TOR
12%
5 Donovan Mitchell CLE
11%
6 Jakob Poeltl TOR
9%
7 Brandon Ingram TOR
9%
8 James Harden CLE
8%
9 Jamal Shead TOR
6%
10 Dean Wade CLE
5%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
18%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
11%
Jumper
34%
Layup
31%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Donovan Mitchell CLE 26.9 4.7 5.0
2 RJ Barrett TOR 22.7 4.8 4.0
3 Brandon Ingram TOR 22.2 5.0 4.0
4 James Harden CLE 21.5 4.0 7.2
5 Evan Mobley CLE 19.4 8.8 3.9
6 Scottie Barnes TOR 18.0 5.1 8.3
7 Jarrett Allen CLE 16.7 7.7 1.6
8 Sam Merrill CLE 11.7 3.1 2.5
9 Sandro Mamukelashvili TOR 11.3 5.3 2.1
10 Max Strus CLE 11.0 4.3 1.9
11 Collin Murray-Boyles TOR 10.7 5.3 1.6
12 Jamal Shead TOR 10.6 1.7 6.0
13 Jaylon Tyson CLE 10.5 3.4 2.2
14 Jakob Poeltl TOR 9.9 4.9 1.9
15 Ja'Kobe Walter TOR 9.6 3.5 1.9
16 Keon Ellis CLE 9.4 2.6 1.5
17 Dennis Schroder CLE 8.2 2.5 4.2
18 Dean Wade CLE 5.8 3.1 1.2
19 Nae'Qwan Tomlin CLE 5.7 3.4 1.0
20 A.J. Lawson TOR 5.4 2.0 0.9
21 Tyrese Proctor CLE 5.3 1.5 1.5
22 Craig Porter Jr. CLE 4.6 3.1 1.9
23 Larry Nance Jr. CLE 4.4 2.2 1.0
24 Jamison Battle TOR 3.9 1.4 0.7
25 Gradey Dick TOR 3.6 1.3 0.6
26 Trayce Jackson-Davis TOR 2.7 1.6 0.6
27 Jonathan Mogbo TOR 2.5 1.7 0.9
28 Garrett Temple TOR 1.5 0.6 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.