NBA games

PHX @ OKC

NBA Paycom Center ·Final
107–120
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
PHX29282030107
OKC30353520120

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (OKC) / 10 (PHX) games this season
PHX away
home OKC
22% 78%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Dillon Brooks S 38 30 6 1
Devin Booker S 40 22 7 4
Jalen Green S 41 21 5 3
Royce O'Neale 34 16 9 4
Oso Ighodaro S 29 7 8 5
Collin Gillespie S 29 7 6 6
Khaman Maluach 19 4 2 0
Ryan Dunn 8 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 38 37 5 9
Chet Holmgren S 32 19 8 0
Jalen Williams S 23 19 1 4
Ajay Mitchell 29 14 5 5
Luguentz Dort S 24 9 1 0
Isaiah Hartenstein S 22 9 10 2
Alex Caruso 23 7 2 1
Isaiah Joe 15 6 1 0
Jaylin Williams 11 0 1 1
Cason Wallace 21 0 6 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Collin Gillespie · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:24 Q1
"Collin Gillespie makes 8-foot step back jumpshot (Devin Booker assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Green PHX
15%
2 Jalen Williams OKC
14%
3 Devin Booker PHX
11%
4 Dillon Brooks PHX
10%
5 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
9%
6 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC
9%
7 Chet Holmgren OKC
9%
8 Oso Ighodaro PHX
8%
9 Grayson Allen PHX
8%
10 Luguentz Dort OKC
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
21%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
11%
Jumper
31%
Layup
31%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 27.9 4.3 6.6
2 Devin Booker PHX 27.3 4.0 6.3
3 Jalen Green PHX 21.3 4.7 3.0
4 Jalen Williams OKC 19.4 4.8 5.5
5 Chet Holmgren OKC 16.1 8.3 1.7
6 Dillon Brooks PHX 14.1 3.9 2.1
7 Grayson Allen PHX 10.4 2.7 2.0
8 Ajay Mitchell OKC 10.0 2.9 3.1
9 Cason Wallace OKC 8.8 3.1 1.6
10 Isaiah Joe OKC 8.2 1.7 0.9
11 Collin Gillespie PHX 7.8 3.3 2.5
12 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC 7.7 8.9 2.9
13 Royce O'Neale PHX 7.5 3.9 1.6
14 Luguentz Dort OKC 7.1 2.2 1.5
15 Oso Ighodaro PHX 6.1 5.8 2.1
16 Jaylin Williams OKC 5.9 5.2 1.6
17 Jared McCain OKC 5.8 1.6 1.1
18 Nikola Topic OKC 5.8 1.9 4.5
19 Aaron Wiggins OKC 5.5 1.7 1.1
20 Rasheer Fleming PHX 5.3 2.1 0.9
21 Alex Caruso OKC 5.1 2.7 1.6
22 Kenrich Williams OKC 4.6 3.2 1.3
23 Ryan Dunn PHX 4.4 3.8 1.3
24 Haywood Highsmith PHX 4.3 1.7 0.9
25 Khaman Maluach PHX 4.1 5.3 0.4
26 Jamaree Bouyea PHX 3.6 1.5 1.3
27 Amir Coffey PHX 2.9 1.1 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.