NBA games

POR @ SA

NBA Frost Bank Center ·Final
98–111
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
POR2128232698
SA30292824111

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (SA) / 10 (POR) games this season
POR away
home SA
27% 73%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Deni Avdija S 39 30 10 5
Scoot Henderson S 27 18 3 3
Robert Williams III 17 11 6 4
Shaedon Sharpe 22 10 1 2
Jrue Holiday S 36 9 4 11
Toumani Camara S 32 8 2 1
Jerami Grant 19 5 0 0
Donovan Clingan S 22 4 7 1
Matisse Thybulle 21 3 4 1
Sidy Cissoko 1 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Victor Wembanyama S 33 35 5 1
Stephon Castle S 33 17 7 7
De'Aaron Fox S 34 17 5 8
Devin Vassell S 34 15 3 2
Luke Kornet 14 10 6 1
Julian Champagnie S 30 6 5 2
Dylan Harper 23 6 4 2
Keldon Johnson 20 3 7 1
Harrison Barnes 11 2 1 0
Carter Bryant 4 0 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Stephon Castle · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:09 Q1
"Stephon Castle makes 9-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Mason Plumlee SA
16%
2 Victor Wembanyama SA
10%
3 Stephon Castle SA
10%
4 De'Aaron Fox SA
10%
5 Scoot Henderson POR
8%
6 Deni Avdija POR
8%
7 Jrue Holiday POR
8%
8 Devin Vassell SA
8%
9 Julian Champagnie SA
8%
10 Donovan Clingan POR
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
3%
Dunk
75%
Free Throw
2%
Jumper
12%
Layup
8%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Victor Wembanyama SA 27.5 12.7 4.2
2 Deni Avdija POR 27.3 6.6 7.3
3 Jrue Holiday POR 19.4 4.8 5.3
4 Stephon Castle SA 18.7 6.4 8.7
5 De'Aaron Fox SA 17.1 3.8 5.5
6 Jerami Grant POR 16.7 3.6 1.7
7 Shaedon Sharpe POR 16.3 3.3 2.7
8 Scoot Henderson POR 16.0 3.0 3.6
9 Toumani Camara POR 14.2 4.4 2.0
10 Keldon Johnson SA 14.0 4.6 1.5
11 Dylan Harper SA 13.2 3.7 3.6
12 Devin Vassell SA 11.9 4.7 2.2
13 Julian Champagnie SA 10.5 5.2 1.6
14 Donovan Clingan POR 9.9 9.4 1.6
15 Harrison Barnes SA 6.7 1.5 1.2
16 Matisse Thybulle POR 6.7 2.5 1.3
17 Kris Murray POR 5.2 2.6 1.6
18 Robert Williams III POR 5.0 6.4 0.7
19 Vit Krejci POR 4.6 2.6 1.3
20 Luke Kornet SA 4.4 3.9 1.3
21 Carter Bryant SA 4.3 1.9 1.1
22 Blake Wesley POR 2.3 1.0 0.6
23 Lindy Waters III SA 2.3 0.7 0.6
24 Kelly Olynyk SA 1.9 1.0 0.8
25 Yang Hansen POR 1.8 1.1 0.3
26 Mason Plumlee SA 1.4 1.7 0.6
27 Sidy Cissoko POR 1.4 1.2 0.8
28 Bismack Biyombo SA 1.1 1.0 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.