NBA games

ORL @ DET

NBA Little Caesars Arena ·Final
112–101
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ORL35202631112
DET27242327101

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DET) / 10 (ORL) games this season
ORL away
home DET
16% 84%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Paolo Banchero S 37 23 9 4
Franz Wagner S 32 19 5 4
Wendell Carter Jr. S 37 17 7 5
Desmond Bane S 35 17 6 5
Jalen Suggs S 36 16 4 4
Anthony Black 22 7 3 3
Tristan da Silva 21 7 4 0
Goga Bitadze 11 4 6 1
Jamal Cain 9 2 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cade Cunningham S 40 39 5 4
Tobias Harris S 36 17 6 3
Duncan Robinson S 26 9 0 4
Jalen Duren S 33 8 7 1
Ausar Thompson S 25 8 7 1
Daniss Jenkins 22 6 2 2
Kevin Huerter 18 3 2 1
Isaiah Stewart 19 3 4 0
Javonte Green 5 3 1 1
Caris LeVert 4 3 3 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jalen Suggs · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:19 Q1
"Jalen Suggs makes 25-foot three point jumper (Desmond Bane assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Duren DET
20%
2 Paolo Banchero ORL
12%
3 Desmond Bane ORL
9%
4 Cade Cunningham DET
9%
5 Franz Wagner ORL
8%
6 Ausar Thompson DET
8%
7 Tobias Harris DET
8%
8 Paul Reed DET
7%
9 Duncan Robinson DET
7%
10 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
11%
Free Throw
52%
Jumper
8%
Layup
27%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jalen Duren DET 23.1 10.4 3.9
2 Paolo Banchero ORL 21.9 8.1 6.0
3 Cade Cunningham DET 20.0 4.3 10.5
4 Desmond Bane ORL 19.4 4.4 3.7
5 Daniss Jenkins DET 16.4 4.0 5.9
6 Franz Wagner ORL 15.7 3.4 2.9
7 Jalen Suggs ORL 14.5 4.3 6.1
8 Tobias Harris DET 14.3 4.5 2.8
9 Duncan Robinson DET 13.2 2.6 2.0
10 Kevin Huerter DET 12.3 3.2 3.2
11 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL 12.3 6.8 1.5
12 Ausar Thompson DET 9.7 5.6 3.6
13 Tristan da Silva ORL 9.0 3.4 1.9
14 Paul Reed DET 8.8 5.6 1.3
15 Isaiah Stewart DET 8.6 4.2 1.0
16 Anthony Black ORL 8.5 3.3 2.1
17 Jamal Cain ORL 8.4 2.9 1.3
18 Goga Bitadze ORL 6.4 6.2 1.3
19 Ronald Holland II DET 6.4 2.7 1.0
20 Caris LeVert DET 6.1 2.7 1.7
21 Javonte Green DET 5.9 2.8 0.8
22 Jevon Carter ORL 5.5 1.7 1.6
23 Jett Howard ORL 5.2 1.3 0.7
24 Moritz Wagner ORL 3.5 2.0 0.6
25 Jase Richardson ORL 3.5 1.5 0.9
26 Marcus Sasser DET 3.0 0.8 1.3
27 Noah Penda ORL 2.5 1.3 0.9
28 Tolu Smith DET 2.3 1.5 0.6
29 Chaz Lanier DET 1.7 0.6 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.